Goldman Sachs Markets Outlook 2025

MicroStrategy Completes $3,000,000,000 Offering of 0% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029 - BSW

$ETH ETFs

Weekly net flow = +$512.8m

Highest weekly inflow since inception… 🐂

PSA: Mac users warned about 'Cthulhu' malware targeting popular crypto wallets like MetaMask, Coinbase, and Binance. - CoinTelegraph

QCP: For equities, momentum traders and trend-followers are reportedly re-leveraging, amplified by August's lower liquidity. Corporate share buybacks have surged to $1.15 trillion this year. Goldman Sachs' trading unit has seen record client demand for dips. The market is eerily optimistic with US equities at all-time highs and Asian equities largely in the green today in anticipation of an imminent rate cut and a soft landing. However there are still signs of nervousness as the options market is pricing in a 1% swing on the S&P 500 for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday. In contrast to equities, crypto sentiment is strikingly bearish. BTC perpetual funding rates dropped to -13% over the weekend, the lowest since 2022. U.S. elections remains a key focus, with BTC skew favoring puts pre-election, and a steep 6-point vol spread between pre- and post-election expiries. Kaiko: Ethereum’s gas fees have recently hit five-year lows. This fee reduction has implications for ETH, as lower fees mean less ETH is burned, increasing the token’s supply. ETH’s total supply has risen consistently since April. Despite demand drivers like spot ETH ETFs, this growing supply could dampen potential price increases in the near term. Glassnode: The LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous ATH breaks, indicating that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles. This suggests they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure. Greekslive: Block trading, which has been dormant for days, is back on fire, with significant growth in block trades traded today, with a notional value of over $500 million. From the distribution of options, the main focus is on selling call options and buying put options.

Derivative Trader Commentary: Perpetual funding rate indexes are both negative and look negative across the major exchanges. Short dated basis has followed with BTC September and short solidly under 10% and this week 3.3% (although with a negative perp basis, maybe that is higher than it ought to be). ETH Basis is lower still with 8/23 negative, 8/30 under 2%. December and longer basis is decidedly higher for both assets. Implied volatility is a bit lower than we ended the week but still low 50’s for BTC and low 60’s for ETH. Longer dated volatilities are higher and skew to match. This solves a bit of the mystery of the longer dated basis being high in spite of low funding rates: flows like buying longer dated calls. That said, puts are favored in ETH all the way to October options and for BTC September. After that, back to what has been the norm — long dated call buying.

BTC ATM IV
1W: 48.96%
1M: 51.3%
3M: 60.1%
6M: 62.57%
Deribit Volatility Index: 53.45
Index Price: $60918.76

ETH ATM IV
1W: 59.22%
1M: 62.12%
3M: 70.67%
6M: 72.64%
Deribit Volatility Index: 64.56
Index Price: $2666.55

SOL ATM IV
1W: 78.0%
1M: 86.48%
3M: 88.88%
6M: 89.47%
Index Price: $147.1558

"The information in this message is for information purposes only and not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is believed to be accurate and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products."

https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1819355060792443207?

Citi Disruptive Innovations

https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1795442217378824361?s=5

X (formerly Twitter)

MartyParty (@martypartymusic) on X

Ex #MtGox CEO confirms trustee moving the 142000 $BTC to distribution wallets - October 2024 is the deadline. No worries ***😉*** this is good news. We need this event over.

### Market Color Update
Source: OTC Desks and Prime Brokerages

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Overview:Recent activity and sentiment data from our OTC desks and prime brokerages reveal several key trends leading up to and following the ETH ETF news:

1. ETH Dominance: Ethereum (ETH) is dominating, accounting for 40% of overall flow.
2. BTC/ETH Ratio: The BTC/ETH ratio is 0.56, indicating a strong preference for ETH transactions.
3. Bullish Sentiment on ETH: The Buy/Sell ratio for ETH is 4.04, showing significant bullishness.
4. Majors vs. Alts: The flow ratio between major cryptocurrencies and altcoins is 3.76, favoring majors.
5. BTC Activity: BTC has a balanced Buy/Sell ratio of 0.98, reflecting neutral sentiment.
6. Increased Activity in Specific Alts: Increased activity observed in SOL, DOGE, and LDO, with hedge funds showing bullishness on LDO.
   Implications and Strategy:- ETH Exposure: Consider increasing ETH exposure given the strong bullish sentiment.
   - BTC Rebalancing: BTC's neutral sentiment offers a chance for strategic rebalancing.
   - Altcoins Monitoring: Keep an eye on SOL, DOGE, and LDO for potential growth, especially with institutional interest in LDO.
   Conclusion:ETH’s dominance and bullish sentiment suggest a favorable environment for Ethereum. Use these insights for informed decision-making and stay updated on the latest market trends.

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Note: This market color is based on the latest data from our OTC desks and prime brokerages. Integrate this information with your broader market analysis.

Also today is holiday in US markets. So expect much lesser volatility.