The Block 2025 Digital Asset Outlook

MANTRA to Tokenize $1B of Real-World Assets for UAE-Based Property Firm DAMAC
The MANTRA blockchain network has partnered with DAMAC Group, one of the largest real estate companies in the UAE, to tokenize at least $1 billion of DAMAC's assets, spanning real estate, hospitality, and data centers, starting in early 2025. - Link

https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/DAO-F25

Goldman Sachs Markets Outlook 2025

MicroStrategy Completes $3,000,000,000 Offering of 0% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029 - BSW

$ETH ETFs

Weekly net flow = +$512.8m

Highest weekly inflow since inception… ?

PSA: Mac users warned about 'Cthulhu' malware targeting popular crypto wallets like MetaMask, Coinbase, and Binance. - CoinTelegraph

QCP: For equities, momentum traders and trend-followers are reportedly re-leveraging, amplified by August's lower liquidity. Corporate share buybacks have surged to $1.15 trillion this year. Goldman Sachs' trading unit has seen record client demand for dips. The market is eerily optimistic with US equities at all-time highs and Asian equities largely in the green today in anticipation of an imminent rate cut and a soft landing. However there are still signs of nervousness as the options market is pricing in a 1% swing on the S&P 500 for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday. In contrast to equities, crypto sentiment is strikingly bearish. BTC perpetual funding rates dropped to -13% over the weekend, the lowest since 2022. U.S. elections remains a key focus, with BTC skew favoring puts pre-election, and a steep 6-point vol spread between pre- and post-election expiries. Kaiko: Ethereum’s gas fees have recently hit five-year lows. This fee reduction has implications for ETH, as lower fees mean less ETH is burned, increasing the token’s supply. ETH’s total supply has risen consistently since April. Despite demand drivers like spot ETH ETFs, this growing supply could dampen potential price increases in the near term. Glassnode: The LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous ATH breaks, indicating that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles. This suggests they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure. Greekslive: Block trading, which has been dormant for days, is back on fire, with significant growth in block trades traded today, with a notional value of over $500 million. From the distribution of options, the main focus is on selling call options and buying put options.

Derivative Trader Commentary: Perpetual funding rate indexes are both negative and look negative across the major exchanges. Short dated basis has followed with BTC September and short solidly under 10% and this week 3.3% (although with a negative perp basis, maybe that is higher than it ought to be). ETH Basis is lower still with 8/23 negative, 8/30 under 2%. December and longer basis is decidedly higher for both assets. Implied volatility is a bit lower than we ended the week but still low 50’s for BTC and low 60’s for ETH. Longer dated volatilities are higher and skew to match. This solves a bit of the mystery of the longer dated basis being high in spite of low funding rates: flows like buying longer dated calls. That said, puts are favored in ETH all the way to October options and for BTC September. After that, back to what has been the norm — long dated call buying.

BTC ATM IV
1W: 48.96%
1M: 51.3%
3M: 60.1%
6M: 62.57%
Deribit Volatility Index: 53.45
Index Price: $60918.76

ETH ATM IV
1W: 59.22%
1M: 62.12%
3M: 70.67%
6M: 72.64%
Deribit Volatility Index: 64.56
Index Price: $2666.55

SOL ATM IV
1W: 78.0%
1M: 86.48%
3M: 88.88%
6M: 89.47%
Index Price: $147.1558

"The information in this message is for information purposes only and not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is believed to be accurate and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products."

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