EIA, week ending 6/14
Crude oil: -2.5M
Domestic prod: 13.2MMbpd
Cushing: +0.3M
Gasoline: -2.3M
Mogas supplied: 9.39MMbpd
Distillates: -1.7M
Refiner utilz: 93.5%
Ref inputs: 16.77MMbpd
Total exports: 11.0MMbpd

2024/06/14 EIA Weekly data snapshot

Key Finding은 다음과 같습니다.
- Mogas 및 Blending components 재고가 감소하고 Implied mogas demand가 9.386MBPD를 기록하며 5월 중순이후 악화일로를 보이던
Mogas시황에 긍정적 Data가 발표됨. 다만 금주 발표된 mogas demand 수치는 휴일을 앞두고 Retailer들이 선주문을 한 수량이 과대계상
되었을 가능성이 존재함. 일각에서는 최근 Retail/Wholesale 가격이 반등하며 Retailer들이 하절기 대비를 위한 재고비축성 주문도 몰린 것으로
해석하는 의견도 있음. 그럼에도 불구하고 4주평균 수요가 지속 우상향 하는 것은 수요자체는 견조하다는 시각을 뒷받침 해주는 것으로 풀이됨.
- 정유사 가동률이 전주 대비 소폭 하락했는데, 작년과 비슷한 WoW 커브를 보이고 있어 공급측면에서 큰 변수로 보기 어려우며,
전체 재고 수준이 작년보다 높다는 점을 고려하면 작년과 비슷한 수준의 가동률 유지는 여전히 Mogas 시장에 부담스러운 요소.
- Blender들의 blending activity가 전주대비 활발해졌으나, 시황 개선보다는 보유하고 있는 악성 고가 Octane을 블렌딩 후 수출하여 정리하고
시장에 존재하는 상대적으로 저렴한 유분으로 교체하려는 수요가 영향을 주고 있다는 시각이 존재함. 정유사들이 탱크에 보유한 Reformate 및
Aromatics octane도 재고가 높은 편. 다만 정유사들은 해당 유분을 sell-off하기 보다는 여름철로 끌고가면서 시황 개선 여부를 관찰하려는
의지가 강함.
- 최근 Blending value는 저점에서 반등하여 다소 개선되었으며, RBOB+70~80cpg 수준을 형성하고 있으나 거래가 활발하지는 않은 것으로 보임.
C5/RBOB Spread도 금주에 들어서며 반등세를 보이고 있으나, Spread 반등이 Blending value 반등에 영향을 미치려면 다소 시간이 필요할 것으로
판단됨.
- 원유 선물 시장은 일단 사우디가 더 이상 M/S를 지키기 위한 강력한 정책적 의지를 보여주지 않고 있어, 다시 Macro에 영향을 받기 시작함.
현재 Macro 측면에서 가장 화두는 미국 Equity 마켓의 지속적 상승인데, 전체 시장 분위기가 Bullish betting으로 쏠리면서 Commodity 시장도
동반 강세를 보이고 있음. 원유 선물도 자체 시장 수급보다는 금융상품 전체의 낙관적 분위기 속에 최근 2주간 보여준 완만한 상승세 유지될 것으로 전망.
단, 상단은 제품 Crack 약세(특히 Mogas crack 약세)가 개선되지 않으면 막혀 있는 것으로 판단됨

The video showed men dressed in army fatigues crouched on the ground and speaking to RSF members in an Egyptian Arabic dialect. Unconfirmed reports by open-source intelligence analysts said several Egyptian Air Force fighter planes and their pilots were captured by the RSF.
Clashes had also erupted between the RSF and army in the Darfur cities of El Fasher and Nyala, eyewitnesses said. The RSF said it had taken control of airports in El Fasher as well as in West Darfur state.
International powers - the U.S., Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Nations, the European Union and the African Union - all called for an immediate end to the hostilities.
After a phone call, the Saudi, U.S. and UAE foreign ministers called for a return to the framework agreement on the transition to democracy, the Saudi state news agency reported.
Chad closed its border with Sudan while Ethiopia and Kenya called for restraint.
A Saudi Arabian airlines plane at Khartoum airport came under fire during clashes and the carrier suspended flights to and from Sudan, the state-owned airline said. Egypt's national airline, Egyptair, said it was suspending flights to Khartoum for 72 hours.
Hemedti's RSF evolved from so-called janjaweed militias that fought in a conflict in the 2000s in the Darfur region, where an estimated 2.5 million people were displaced and 300,000 killed.
(Reporting by Khalid Abdelaziz in Khartoum and Nafisa Eltahir in Cairo; Writing by Nafisa Eltahir, Michael Georgy, Giles Elgood and Cynthia Osterman; Editing by Alex Richardson, Jan Harvey, Frances Kerry and Daniel Wallis)

Sudan paramilitaries clash with army in Khartoum and other citiesBy Khalid Abdelaziz and Nafisa Eltahir
KHARTOUM (Reuters via PiQSuite.com/Suite) -Violence erupted between Sudan's main paramilitary group and the armed forces on Saturday in an apparent struggle for control against the backdrop of the country's halting moves toward elections after a military coup.
Amid conflicting reports from the two sides, the army rejected assertions by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that they had seized the presidential palace, army chief's residence and airports in Khartoum and the northern city of Merowe.
Doctors confirmed three deaths but said many more civilians had been killed and wounded in the clashes that shook residential neighbourhoods of the capital. Fighting was also taking place at the headquarters of Sudan's state TV, according to an on-air anchor.
The army said the Sudanese air force was conducting operations against the RSF. Footage from broadcasters showed military jets flying low over Khartoum, but Reuters could not independently confirm the material.
Gunfire and explosions could be heard across the capital, where TV footage showed smoke rising from several districts. Eyewitnesses reported shooting in adjoining cities.
A Reuters journalist saw cannon and armoured vehicles deployed on the capital's streets and heard heavy weapons fire near the headquarters of both the army and RSF.
Army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan told Al Jazeera TV that the RSF should back down: "We think if they are wise they will turn back their troops that came into Khartoum. But if it continues we will have to deploy troops into Khartoum from other areas." 
The armed forces said on Facebook it would not negotiate with the RSF unless the paramilitary force dissolved.
The RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, called Burhan a "criminal" and a "liar". The military and RSF have been competing for power as political factions negotiate forming a transitional government.
    "We know where you are hiding and we will get to you and hand you over to justice, or you die just like any other dog," he said in an interview with the station.
The RSF, which analysts say is 100,000 strong, said its forces were attacked first by the army, which surrounded one of its bases and opened fire with heavy weapons. The army said it was fighting the RSF at sites the paramilitaries claimed to have taken.
A prolonged confrontation between the RSF and the army could plunge Sudan into widespread conflict as it struggles with economic breakdown and tribal violence, and could also derail efforts to move towards elections.
The clashes follow rising tensions over the RSF's integration into the military. The disagreement has delayed the signing an internationally backed agreement with political parties on a transition to democracy. 
Civilian forces that signed a draft version of that agreement in December called on Saturday for an immediate halt to hostilities by both the army and the RSF, to stop Sudan sliding towards "the precipice of total collapse".
    "This is a pivotal moment in the history of our country," they said in a statement. "This is a war that no one will win, and that will destroy our country forever."
The RSF accused the army of carrying out a plot by loyalists of former strongman President Omar Hassan al-Bashir - who was ousted in a coup in 2019 - and attempting a coup itself. A 2021 coup ousted the country's civilian prime minister.
RSF SAYS EGYPTIAN TROOPS SAFE
Eyewitnesses reported fighting in many areas outside the capital. Those included heavy exchanges of gunfire in Merowe, northern Sudan, eyewitnesses told Reuters.
The RSF shared a video that it said showed Egyptian troops who "surrendered" to them in Merowe. Egypt's military said the troops were in Sudan for exercises with their Sudanese counterparts.
As Cairo sought guarantees for their safety, Hemedti told Sky News Arabia the Egyptians were safe and the RSF would cooperate with Cairo on their return.