— 🇸🇾/🇮🇷/🇷🇺 Big if true / speculation:

An important Iranian analyst on X, who has ties with Iranian personnel inside Syria, claims that Russia has assessed the situation, and it believes that an HTS takeover would not necessarily endanger their interests in Syria because they perceive HTS as 'anti-American'. Apparently, Iran has also assessed the situation, but came to the opposite conclusion, which has led to a rift between the two countries on the matter of Syria.

He also says Bashar al-Assad is much more receptive to Russian influence than Iranian influence, and that the Russians are currently involved in intense negotiations with him, while Iran is encouraging him to stand and fight, even offering to send forces.

The analyst also claims that Iran is slightly annoyed with Syria, because Assad allegedly refused to open up the Golan front against Israel, and I quote: 'Assad has been less and less willing to spend money or attention on the Axis of Resistance, he became less cooperative, prioritizing Syria's own interests first, being enticed by economic proposals from the UAE and other Gulf States.'

@Middle_East_Spectator

It’s sort of like Africa in that it has never had the opportunity to come out from under the thumb of imperialism

The ME will stay what it has always been. A sandbox full of desperate people who believe death is a path to ascension. Any superpower who is greedy enough to invest or gets baited in ends fighting for 20-30 years and then leaving in a much worse position then…

— 🇸🇾 What seems to have happened, is that from the beginning, after two days, the SAA decided to withdraw and position itself at stronger 'defensive lines' West of Aleppo, with the intention of regrouping and preparing themselves.

However, HTS did not stop advancing, and reached these defensive lines much before it was expected, when the SAA had not finished regrouping or positioning itself, and they were in total disarray. So once again, they decided to withdraw to a defensive line further in the rear, which was Aleppo itself.

Instead of stopping and preparing for the assault on Aleppo, which is what the SAA expected, HTS just kept advancing, and every single time HTS was nearing the SAA positions, the defenders were not ready and had not properly established themselves yet.

This led to a perpetual scenario where the SAA withdraws to deeper defensive lines, but the HTS simply catches up with them, and they once again retreat. Now, the command structure and communications have collapsed, and every division / brigade seems to be making its own plans.

The only actual resistance we saw from the SAA was in Anadan and Western Aleppo Countryside during the first two days, and in Tadif, South of Al-Bab, because those positions were already dug in and somewhat prepared for defense. The HTS advance is simply so fast, that the SAA is in total chaos and cannot make a proper plan.

@Middle_East_Spectator

This doesn’t mean Assad will fall or anything. Just presenting a more realistic picture.

When it comes to Syria it seems that a lot of people have built the SAA and the Assad regime into something of a myth. Syria is currently split between 5-7 different nations/factions, has endured 12 years of civil war and land grabs by Turkey, Israel and the U.S. The Syrian governments economy is practically nonexistent and with US control over the oil fields and an inability to operate freely due to “rebel” forces in the north or ISIS pockets in the south of the country.

Its a broken war torn country that is being propped up by Russian air support. Air support that is predominantly focused on the largest land war in Europe since World War Two. Welcome to the new world war, tens of smaller wars across the globe putting pressure on strategic points with the aim of destabilizing your adversary. Nukes make conventional war between superpowers nearly impossible with MAD, so hybrid war it is.

Amman, Jordan right now

A security incident was reported at the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan. Clashes are reportedly taking place in the area, with police seen surrounding the building.

5 ATACMS were reportedly used.

Kinzhals towards Kiev.