Ran into some problems related to mass reporting and other insane behaviors by miscreants, which is why the original group chat with all the members was detached and some other things have been rearranged. Hopefully we can get that resolved.

In the meantime, these are our favorite posts:

The Mother of All Pain Trades (the hard landing) by Gerhard Schrader July 2023. A lot has changed in the 13 months since he wrote this, however, that we nor he could anticipate. If there's interest we might revisit this.
Restoring Credibility — what motivated the recent interest rate hiking cycle (and what could motivate interest rate cuts)? Hint: it's not all about inflation.
Dissecting US hegemony (the dollar)
How the Chinese bloc's monetary divorce from the US bloc is supportive of the price of gold for years to come.
Repo, Treasury market leverage, and the Basis Trade.
The End of Unemployment: looking at how demographic trends will reshape economies in the future.
Examining the Yen carry trade and how asset purchases by foreign non-officials are often funded in depreciating currencies. The carry trade is unhedged, which exposes them to losses when the funding currency appreciates against the investment currency.
The government of Japan is itself arguably involved in a giant carry trade.
How monetary and fiscal policy could change under a Trump administration.
How mass immigration prolongs shelter inflation.
The importance of energy and what "peak EROI" may mean for our future (and perhaps our recent past).
Why is "this time different"? Because of the fiscal picture.
Reasons why the US skirted recession (at least in official terms) in 2023 and 2024
In many ways, we did have a recession in 2022.
The Politics of Recessions and how a government shutdown could lead to contraction in the fiscal deficit (and thus recession).
> Learn about how money works and makes the world spin

And many others that I've left out.

We have some other ideas in the bag. For example we still want to cover more of China and the US-China trade war.

Feel free to leave a suggestion in the comments.

CPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%

CPI 2.9% YoY, Exp. 3.0%
CPI Core 3.2% YoY, Exp. 3.2%

PPI 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
PPI Core 0.0% MoM, Exp. 0.2%

PPI 2.2% YoY, Exp. 2.3%
PPI Core 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.6%

It's difficultto ignore the circus, but earlier today Politico reported what is probably the most noteworthy news item of the last few weeks:

https://t.me/CIG_telegram/48093

Telegram

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

***🇺🇸*** ***🇺🇦*** ***🇷🇺*** The Biden administration has given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, according to Politico https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731…

*DONALD TRUMP FOUND GUILTY AT NEW YORK HUSH MONEY TRIAL

Risks Shifting #commentary

The biggest risk coming into the year was a re-acceleration in inflation off Powell's December pivot, but transitory disinflation has since grown into consensus of sorts (even if the FMS says it hasn't). This is why it was a no brainer to be getting long precious metals and short bonds (yields up) into 2024, IMO.

But it more so continues to feel like individuals are in the “economy will never slow” camp and that the risk of economic contraction is being seriously downplayed. The market continues to be in this never ending loop of "financial conditions tighten -> stocks down" / "financial conditions loosen -> stocks up", until it ends up breaking that cycle which likely comes with a more material slowdown in growth. Maybe the economy does keep chugging along but just like we saw from the latest NFP, it doesn’t take much to swing the pendulum the other way and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again.

I was dismissing the recession / hard landing calls coming into the year, but I now think the risks are shifting to the economy rather than inflation as people focus on the shiny object and not look ahead.

h/t @eliant_capital

"And, as illustrated by the Wall Street Journal, Baby Boomers control more wealth today than ever before, which they can now invest at the highest real rates in >20 years!

"These older cohorts account for more spending than any other age group (a dramatic ascent from just 20 years ago when they accounted for the least spending of any cohort).

"It’s easy to see why high real rates benefit this group as they head into retirement.

"Importantly, it is the beneficiaries of high rates that make up the majority of consumption and ultimately drive the aggregate economy (especially in services).

"Hence, as these cohorts benefit from higher rates they are continuing to spend comfortably, which keeps pressure on services prices.

"So, some cohorts are net creditors that are benefitting from higher rates and keeping services consumption robust, while others are net debtors that are struggling under the pressure of higher rates.

"In aggregate, though, rates are not slowing the consumer! If anything, we believe services consumption is being supported by high rates.

"Hence, we believe that a healthy moderation of the Fed Funds rate into the 4% to 5% range may help services inflation moderate from here. Yet, we think the Fed will probably stay where they are for at least a couple of months."

? Rick Rieder
? Twitter Thread

4/4