Electricity blackouts in Russian Krasnodar continue. Businesses run on generators. Despite protests of local residents, the situation does not improve.

There are fewer and fewer Russians, Peskov complained. According to him, "this can only be dealt with by increasing the average birth rate".

The idea of not sending hundreds of thousands of Russians to die in a sensless war against Ukraine does not come to him.

U.S. and Canadian fighter jets have intercepted Russian and Chinese strategic bombers off the coast of Alaska.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said they detected, tracked and intercepted two Russian TU-95 bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers operating in the Alaska air defense identification zone on July 24, 2024.

The Russian and Chinese aircraft were intercepted by U.S. F-16s and F-35s, as well as Canadian CF-18s.

The bombers remained in international airspace and did not enter U.S. or Canadian sovereign airspace and were not considered a military threat, the NORAD statement noted.

During a briefing for reporters at the Pentagon, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said it was the first time strategic bombers from two U.S. adversaries had flown together near North America.

NORAD fighter jets have intercepted Russian warplanes near Alaska before. After Russia resumed long-range aviation operations in 2007, NORAD conducted an average of six to seven interceptions of Russian warplanes a year, The Wall Street Journal noted.

https://t.co/Wwbn92MzNc

WSJ

U.S. Intercepts Russian and Chinese Bombers on First Joint Mission Off Alaska

The bombers flew into the buffer zone in international airspace in the most recent sign of growing military and security cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.

How long will strategic uncertainty last for Ukraine?

◾️ On July 18, EU leaders were defined. They will be sent to the offices by September.

◾️ The Olympics will take place in Paris on July 26-11.

◾️ On August 19-22, the Democratic presidential candidate will be confirmed in the United States.

◾️ On September 8, there will be regional elections in Russia, regional elections. (Before this date, the likelihood of Putin announcing a mass mobilization is very low).

◾️ On September 10, the 79th session of the UN General Assembly starts, with Cameroon as the new chairman. On the 20th, the traditional speeches of the first persons are held.

◾️ On October 1, Mark Rutte takes over as NATO Secretary General. That means a transition period plus waiting for the new US leader.

◾️ October 6/7 is the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. There will likely be a new emotional and informational round.

◾️ On October 18-20, the meeting of G7 defense ministers will be held in Naples, under the Italian presidency.

◾️Presidential elections in Moldova will be held on October 20.

◾️ October 22-24, 2024 – BRICS summit in Kazan. Xi Jinping is expected to attend.

◾️ October 26 - parliamentary elections in Georgia.

◾️ November 5 - US presidential election. Most likely, there will be a correction of the agenda in November, but the decisions will be implemented starting from February 2025.

◾️ November 18-19 - G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.

◾️ November 24, December 1, December 8 – presidential and parliamentary elections in Romania.

◾️ The UN Security Council is presided over by Slovenia in September, Switzerland in October, Britain in November, and the United States in December.

◾️ September-October is the traditional period for finalizing the budget process for the next year in many countries, i.e., the focus is on domestic issues amid demands for increased defense spending.

◾️ Sometime within these months, the second peace summit should be held.
Ukrainian leadership wants to organize it before the US elections.

◾️ And at some point in 2024, Ukraine should finally get some F-16s.

To summarize:
Looking through the military-political optics in this short-term period, no radical changes are expected until the end of 2024. This is not the best time to make emotional, hasty decisions.

The baseline scenario is moderately bad news for Ukraine.

What can really improve the situation now:
1) Preparing for winter;
2) Help with weapons for Ukraine.

The main "diplomatic" factor now is the rate of destruction of Russian manpower.

?: Military expert Oleksii Kopytko

Five Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft failed due to substandard bearings, Russian media report.

Russian Kommersant media reported that the supply of low-quality bearings led to the failure of five Il-76 military transport aircraft, which "caused substantial damage to the legally protected interests of the state represented by the Russian Ministry of Defense."

A small but important dent in Russia's military capabilities.

I wanted to share with you some thoughts by Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia, that he voiced at Aspen Security Forum. I've added English subtitles for convenience.

Two points from @ vseviov's thoughts:

◾️Putin "has to derail us at all costs this year. The two tools that he uses against us - fear and false hope."

◾️ "He's not interested in peace. He's interested in derailing our policy. The way it would work, similar to Minsk 3 or Minsk 2 on steroids or the getting the chemical weapons out of Syria case, where he creates a diplomatic process that ties us down, derails all alternative politics or policies and eventually doesn't fulfill any of the promises he gives."

Nepal has stopped issuing permits to its citizens to work in Russia after at least 10 Nepali soldiers were killed while serving in the Russian army, and about 100 are reported to be missing.

Nepal has asked Russia not to recruit its citizens in the Russian army and to immediately send all Nepali soldiers back to home and compensate the families of those killed.

But it did not stop Russia and the police in Nepal detained 10 people last month over allegations that they sent unemployed youths for illegal recruitment into the Russian army after charging them huge amounts of money for travel visas.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nepal-halts-work-permits-russia-ukraine-after-soldiers-killed-2024-01-05/

Reuters

Nepal halts work permits for Russia, Ukraine after soldiers killed

Nepal has stopped issuing permits to its citizens to work in Russia and Ukraine until further notice, an official said on Friday, after at least 10 Nepali soldiers were killed while serving in the Russian army.

I have been avoiding the issue of the blockade on the Polish-Ukrainian border for a long time, hoping the situation would resolve diplomatically.

The text below is an attempt to show the situation from the Ukrainian point of view. I do not intend or have ever intended to diminish the aid and support that Poland has given and continues provide for Ukraine and Ukrainians. I trust that the relations of our two countries are mature enough to reach agreement on complicated matters, as well. We have a common enemy - Russia, and must act not to let Russia win. The one stakeholder who is definitely happy with the current situation is the Kremlin.

The so-called "grain blockade" of Ukraine by Polish farmers has started in April of 2023, and it has caused a domino effect in other Eastern European countries. A series of diplomatic crises followed.

On November 6, 2023, a group of Polish drivers (with silent agreement of the Polish authorities) has blocked the movement of cargo through the Ukrainian border.

There were hopes that these issues will be resolved after a new government takes over in Poland.

However, what is currently happening at the Polish-Ukrainian border is, in fact, a full-scale trade war against Ukraine. It lasts for a long time already and the situation is getting worse.

The way I see it, the Ukrainian border has become a target and a playing card that is used in Poland's internal politics in the context of elections. The border is used as a pressure mechanism on the government by various players.

This has catastrophic consequences for Ukraine - the border is blocked. Ukraine cannot do business with Europe. The budget of a country at war suffers huge losses.

Moreover, the blockade hurts Ukrainian Armed Forces - despite promises not to hinder military and humanitarian cargo, reality is often different.

Poland has done so much for Ukraine. Polish people are our true friends, I'm certain of that.

But the blockade is becoming a serious challenge. If this issue is not solved ASAP, immediately, the challenge can turn into a catastrophe.

Unblocking the borders will serve in Poland's interests. This is what the Euro Commission calls on Warsaw to do, what is in line with the interests of the majority of Polish business.

"There is no free Poland without a free Ukraine" is a quote attributed to Józef Piłsudski. I believe it to be true.

Poland rose above and beyond when the full-scale invasion began, and Ukraine will never forget that. We have faith in our Polish partners, allies, friends.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1743309522616099266?t=oWdUNn622Px4EctONOr-Lg&s=19

"Russia has already received several dozen ballistic missiles from North Korea and is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran," - WSJ. In today's world, while democracies observe procedure and calculate risks, dictatorships act. Russia has…

A resident of Zaporizhzhia, which was attacked by Russians yesterday, tearfully tells about the deaths of her neighbors.

Deepest condolences.

?: weukrainetv/Instagram