Bitcoin dominance and the test of the bull market ?

In the crypto world, the dominance of Bitcoin is of high importance.
It shows the weight of BTC to other altcoins.
It is this indicator that is now the main one for determining the vector of market movement or the potential start of the alt season.

? Bitcoin dominance has been jumping in the range of 40-49% for the past 2 years.
That is, we have a certain flat on the chart.
Let's analyze the history of what is happening in the market during one or another indicator of Bitcoin dominance over these last 2 years.

Look at the picture ?
In 3 out of 4 cases, when dominance rose to 50%, this led to a collapse of the crypto market.

BUT it is important to consider that we are analyzing the situation in 2021-2022.
At that time, there was a bear market and if now is really a bull market, then Bitcoin dominance will finally go above 50%.
Or it will start to decline, then liquidity will flow from Bitcoin to alts, as it was in July 2022.

It turns out, based on the analysis of domination, we have 2 scenarios:
1. We continue to be inside the flat and in the near future we will see a collapse and a decrease in dominance.
After strong growth of alts.
2. We break through the sideways up, Bitcoin slowly rises or falls, and the alts start to shoot.

? In our closed club we have several model portfolios.
In the long term, we have a position in gold and Bitcoin.
In the medium term, there are currently 10 positions open in the stock market and 8 positions in altcoins.
In these positions, we expect multiple growth (at least 200-500%).
Most of the portfolio was formed at the beginning of this year.

A coin with up to 800% growth potential ?

Dash is an open source peer-to-peer payment system with the unit of account of the same name. The coin was launched in 2014 and is a fork of Bitcoin.
Dash emphasizes user privacy and faster transaction speeds than Bitcoin.
The algorithm for mining the coin occurs due to mining, like in Bitcoin, but with support for staking.

? In past bullish cycles, the coin performed well: + 8374% in 2017, and + 332% in 2021.
The coin has already fallen -96% from its peak, so the downside potential is very limited.

Due to the fact that the coin is anonymous, many exchanges have delisted due to local laws.
This item can be attributed to the minuses of the coin, but in fact it is a huge plus.

? Technical Analysis

Just look at this chart for the five-year history of trading on the coin!
In all bear markets, the coin comes to the main support zone of $30-50 per coin.
Globally, we have a massive descending triangle that lacks the last wave of growth to the upper border of the pattern.
Also, the price has successfully exited the downward channel upwards and now the accumulation stage is taking place.

So now we have 2 scenarios:
1. Growth from the current price after accumulation stage up to $200 and then go down.
2. Growth of current price with breakdown of the figure upwards.
In this case, coin can go real tothemoon ?

? Outcome:
Now the coin is cheap and is trading near its bottom. However, at current levels, volatility is quite high, so at the moment you can see a drawdown of up to -50%.
But even at current prices, the coin looks very promising.

For medium-term and long-term investment, a coin can be bought at current values, but we recommend buying back a coin during a correction.
? Long current price: 49,6$
⭐️ Main position recruitment zone:
30-40$.
? Volume per trade up to 1-2% of the crypto portfolio.
? Up to 800% growth potential.

#altcoins #investidea

Is there reason for fear??

The main US index has a significant impact on the dynamics of markets around the world, so its very important to keep an eye on it ?

The forecast for Sp500 that we gave a month ago in a closed club is partially being implemented.
We still dont rule out a final upward momentum of index to collect stops of shorts-guys.
But in the short term, all the factors for the fall of the index.

⚙️ According to the technical analysis, Sp500 rests on a strong resistance of 4200p.
For more than a year, the index has not been able to break through this level.
Immediate support around 4000p., where the upper limit of the medium-term falling channel passes.

The global economy is in a recessionary cycle, which means that in the coming quarters one should not expect growth in revenues and profits of companies.
?️ On the one hand, high inflation prevents central banks from lowering rates.
? But on the other hand, the situation with bank failures forces the Fed to inject hundreds of billions to save them.

? Outcome:
In the short term, we expect the Sp500 index to drop to 4000p, and then lower.
In the medium to long term, the index will inevitably rise as central banks continue to print trillions to support/rescue the financial system.

We recommend to be in assets by no more than 50% of the portfolio.
This year we will definitely see lower prices, so it is extremely important to have a cash to buy additional assets.

How does the US Federal Reserve balance affect ALL MARKETS? ?

The Fed's balance has decreased, the crypto market, Sp500 went into a correction, and bitcoin is falling faster than Sp500.
BTC is the most risky asset, because it shows weaker than the US index, BUT…

Now in the US, many Sp500 companies report quarterly.
The global economy is in recession, which means that you should not expect any impressive results from companies.
We expect Sp500 to fall, followed by Bitcoin.

? Now you need to closely monitor the macro data of the US market.
As you can see on the chart, the Fed's balance sheet was already falling below its current levels at the end of February, which led to the bankruptcy of a number of banks.
And as a result, new money was poured into the market, which led to the growth of the crypto market ?️

The leaders of central banks do not know how to solve problems differently, and with such a financial system there is no way out other than printing money.
Therefore, as soon as the Fed's balance sheet starts to grow again, the crypto market will continue to rally with double strength.

Friends, no matter if you trade long/short - be sure to use stops in trades ?️

What levels are worth buying BTC? ?

Bitcoin closed last week at lows.
The weekly candlestick closed negatively for Bitcoin, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.
We have repeatedly said that we are unlikely to break through the $30,000 mark the first time.
As a result, as you can see on the chart, the price bounces down from this level.

? On the weekly timeframe, indicators have left the overbought zone, but are still at high levels. On the daily chart, the indicators have already gone into the neutral zone. That is, according to the indicators, there is still a potential for decline.

Now the magnet for the price is the $22500-24300 zone, where the $24300 level, the long-term MA200w, the 2021-2022 downtrend line and the profile volume zone act as support.
In this zone, it is worth considering medium-long-term purchases.
Please note that locally the price is inside the ascending channel.
The lower boundary of this channel is just in the zone indicated above.

? If the price still manages to break through this support zone down, then the next stop will be around $21,600. In this zone, there is an equally significant support zone in the form of a key level and a long-term moving MA200d.
In this range, it is also worth buying Bitcoin in your portfolio.
But we still consider this option unlikely.

We believe that after the correction, BTC will return to growth, as this is indicated by a strong fundamental factor, which will be discussed in more detail in the next post ?

Last chance for gold ?

It is very important to see how this week closes.
Now the zone of historical maximum.
The forecast for gold that was posted on our channel is strictly at the rate.
We remind that in the short term, gold looks good in the short, BUT

⚠️ In the medium and long term, gold will grow.
The fact is that gold is highly correlated with 10-year US bonds and the dollar index.
And in these assets, the main panic has already passed (or will end in the coming months).
❗️Therefore, if you want to short gold, then do it only with a stop?️

The maximum fall limit for gold is in the region of $1700-1800.
At these levels, you can well increase the share of gold in the portfolio.

Tothemoon in bitcoin cancelled?
The rocket flies in the opposite direction ?

Is there any hope for growth?
At the moment, the $28-30k level is well traded, so we expect it to shake in the coming days, fasten your seat belts ?

Now it is very important to wait for the close of the week, Bitcoin has already surprised everyone with its 50% growth after the bankruptcy of two large banks in the US and Europe.
We will sum up the final result on Monday, so we do not cancel the positive scenario, but we keep it in mind.
So far, we are moving strictly according to our forecast from the closed club, which we gave at the beginning of the month.

? In the current market, we recommend having a sufficient level of cash in your portfolio.
This wave of decline will probably be the last, after which a medium-term growth cycle will begin.
Large volumes of money enter many assets, so we do not expect any collapse.

?‍? You need to unload overbought for further growth in any case...

Where not to invest to lose money? ?

At the end of 2021, when the Fed stopped "printing money", all the meme companies - $RIVN, $SPCE, $SNAP - began to fall rapidly and are ultimately worth -80-90%.
And it's only been 1.5 years...

Last month, the banking crisis erupted and shares of regional banks fell even faster than meme companies ?****

So which stocks should not be bought in the near future?
Which sector will fall next?
How not to fall into the broker's trap?

?️ Protective video (4 min) that will save you from a big portfolio drawdown:
https://youtu.be/8CSamGvEa3c

When Bitcoin will become #1? ?

If bitcoin takes the first place among all assets on this planet, its price will be $120k!

We think that it will be in next year. And what do you think?
Write in comments ✏️

#btc

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