https://www.riotimesonline.com/new-era-at-sao-paulo-fc-luis-zubeldia-takes-the-helm-until-2025/

The Rio Times

New Era at São Paulo FC: Luis Zubeldía Takes the Helm Until 2025

São Paulo FC heralded a fresh chapter with the signing of Argentine coach Luis Zubeldía, slated to lead the team until the end of 2025.

https://www.riotimesonline.com/historic-victory-atletico-mg-conquers-cruzeiro-at-arena-mrv/

The Rio Times

Historic Victory: Atlético-MG Conquers Cruzeiro at Arena MRV

On a memorable Saturday evening at the Arena MRV, Atlético-MG secured their first home win against arch-rivals Cruzeiro.

https://www.riotimesonline.com/corinthians-falls-to-red-bull-bragantino-in-away-game-for-brasileirao-2024/

The Rio Times

Corinthians Falls to Red Bull Bragantino in Away Game for Brasileirão 2024

On April 20, the Corinthians traveled to Bragança Paulista, ready to clash with Red Bull Bragantino in a pivotal third-round match.

https://www.riotimesonline.com/oil-futures-rise-slightly-in-a-week-of-middle-eastern-tensions/

The Rio Times

Oil Futures Rise Slightly in a Week of Middle Eastern Tensions

In a week marked by geopolitical turbulence, oil futures experienced a rollercoaster ride, concluding slightly higher despite a tumultuous

https://www.riotimesonline.com/ibovespa-ends-higher-amidst-dividend-payouts-and-stabilized-global-tensions/

The Rio Times

Ibovespa Ends Higher Amidst Dividend Payouts and Stabilized Global Tensions

In Brazil, the closing bell on Friday heralded a small victory for the Ibovespa, the country's primary stock index, which climbed by

https://www.riotimesonline.com/dollar-falls-1-amid-market-adjustments-despite-weekly-gain/

The Rio Times

Dollar Falls 1% Amid Market Adjustments Despite Weekly Gain

This past Friday marked a significant day for the U.S. dollar, particularly in its exchange against the Brazilian real, where it fell nearly

Algeria's Iron Ore Revolution

Since July 2022, Algeria has taken a significant step in mining. Over 250,000 tons of iron have been extracted from the Gara Djebilet mine. Reda Belhadj, Deputy Director-General of FERAAL, shared this update on national radio.

Belhadj stated that this iron would meet part of Algeria's market needs. The rest is set for export, leveraging the recent rise in iron prices. These prices have increased by 35%, now over $135 per ton.

Gara Djebilet is among the world's largest in reserves, holding about 3.5 billion tons of iron ore. Plans are to extract up to three million tons annually by 2025. This figure is projected to reach 50 million tons yearly by 2040.

Algeria also operates the Ouenza and Bujadra mines in Tébessa. Together, they produce two million tons of iron each year.

To enhance mining, Algeria is developing infrastructure like the Gara Djebilet-Béchar railway and the Bechar steel complex. These projects will support iron ore transport and processing.

During a late November visit to Gara Djebilet, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune urged the steel industry to begin exports. Target markets include Africa and Europe.

This initiative is part of Algeria's strategy to diversify its economy. It aims to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons, the main income source. Discovered in 1952, Gara Djebilet is integral to this plan.

Algeria's mining efforts mirror a regional trend in Africa, where countries are turning to natural resources for economic growth. Compared to other African nations, Algeria's use of its vast iron ore reserves is particularly ambitious.

This approach aligns with global mining leaders like Brazil and Australia. These countries have set benchmarks in iron ore production and export infrastructure.

Algeria's focus on infrastructure development is crucial. It mirrors strategies in nations like Canada, where mining is supported by robust transport networks.

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Brazil Nears Inflation Target, Eyes Rate Cuts

Brazil's annual inflation rate has recently hit the central bank's target. This success sets the stage for further rate cuts. On Wednesday, monetary policymakers are likely to apply a fourth consecutive reduction in financing costs.

Official data released on Tuesday showed consumer prices in November rose 4.68% from the previous year. This figure slightly undercuts analysts' expectations of a 4.7% increase. Monthly inflation was at 0.28%.

The central bank's inflation target for the year stands at 3.25%. This target includes a tolerance range of ±1.5 percentage points.

Signs of economic slowdown in Brazil have influenced monetary policy. Policymakers are expected to reduce the benchmark Selic rate to 11.75% on Wednesday. High borrowing costs, while initially controlling inflation, now impact growth forecasts.

Andrés Abadía, Chief Economist for Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics, notes ongoing deflation. He attributes this to moderate economic activity and low commodity prices. He predicts year-end inflation to hover around 4.5%.

The central bank, led by Roberto Campos Neto, began policy easing in August. This change followed a reduction in annual inflation rates from near-record highs. However, rising fuel costs raise concerns, particularly for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration.

Bloomberg Economics suggests Wednesday's policy meeting may maintain a 50 basis point relaxation rate. November's inflation drivers included a 0.63% rise in food and beverage costs and a 0.48% increase in housing prices. In contrast, communication services saw a 0.5% price drop.

Carla Argenta, Chief Economist at CM Capital, believes this report indicates controlled inflation in early 2024.

State-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA faces criticism over rising fuel prices, impacting airfares. November saw a 19.12% increase in air ticket prices, marking a third month of significant hikes.

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The Rising Tide of Non-OPEC Oil

OPEC+ is entering a critical phase. Over the next five years, they must manage oil reserves carefully. This is crucial to prevent a possible collapse in oil prices. Rapidan Energy Group, a renowned consulting firm, highlights this need in their recent report.

Oil demand globally is not expected to peak for another decade at least. Yet, the oil reserves outside of OPEC, particularly in the US, Brazil, and Guyana, are growing faster than expected. This growth is reshaping the oil industry's future.

Rapidan, established by ex-White House staffer Bob McNally, emphasizes the importance of OPEC+'s role. They need to manage oil supplies effectively and vigilantly. This is vital to maintain stable oil prices.

Despite high global demand, oil prices have fallen by 11% this year in London. The price per barrel hovers around $75. This is due to worsening economic conditions and increased oil supply from non-OPEC countries like the US.

The long-term outlook for oil is uncertain. Agencies like the International Energy Agency predict a decline in demand this decade. This is expected as consumers shift to low-carbon energy and electric vehicles. But Rapidan questions the speed of this transition. They suggest the decline in oil demand might not happen as soon as anticipated.

The report by Rapidan points to a major market surprise. They believe that oil demand failing to peak by 2030 will shock the market. This contradicts the current consensus on oil demand peaking.

OPEC+ faces pressure from the steady growth in non-OPEC supply. This was evident in the recent price wars and future consumption uncertainties. Rapidan forecasts that non-OPEC supply will increase significantly, thanks to growth in the US, Brazil, and Guyana.

OPEC+ holds about 5 million barrels per day of spare production capacity. This represents around 5% of the global supply. The group needs to carefully plan its market return.

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Record Business Debt Crisis Hits Brazil in October

October 2023 in Brazil saw an unprecedented rise in business defaults. Serasa Experian's report highlighted that 6.64 million companies missed their debt payments. This marked a substantial increase from previous years.

Comparing year-on-year, defaults grew by 4.79%. The jump was even more pronounced against October 2019, with a 10.49% increase. This trend of escalating defaults began in May 2023.

Businesses accumulated debts of R$ 125.8 billion (about $25.78 billion at a 4.88 exchange rate). Each company, on average, owed R$ 18,957 (roughly $3,884). Small businesses were the hardest hit, with 5.92 million defaulting in October. They accounted for 89.1% of all defaults.

Small businesses play a vital role in Brazil's employment, generating 69.5% of jobs. These include micro, small, and medium enterprises, forming 94% of Brazil's business landscape.

Economist Luiz Rabi from Serasa Experian connects these defaults to broader economic issues. He cites high interest rates and rising defaults as key factors. These conditions weaken consumer purchasing power and reduce business clientele. They also make debt repayment tougher for companies.

Rabi doesn't foresee a decrease in defaults soon. Yet, he expects stabilization and a gradual decline from the second quarter of 2024. The Selic rate, set at 12.25% annually since September 2023, is predicted to drop to 11.75% by year's end and further to between 10% and 9% by late 2024.

November's inflation showed a slight increase of 0.33%. This rate was below the previous year's figure for the same month. Rabi points out that defaults typically trail behind economic cycles. He believes sustained low inflation and reduced interest rates are needed for improvement.

The service sector faced the most defaults, with a record 3.62 million companies struggling. While commerce and industry sectors fared better, their default levels stayed below pre-pandemic figures.

Source