:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was reached moderate levels. Region 3924 (S18W76,
Eko/beta-gamma) produced an M1.6 flare at 19/1038 UTC. Region 3927
(S08E62, Dai/beta) produced several C-class flares. Region 3922 (S19W47,
Dai/beta) increased in area, but was inactive. The remaining regions
were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events over
19-21 Dec as Region 3927 rotates fully onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 21 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels over 19-21 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment indicated continued but waning CME influence.
Total field gradually decreased from 8 nT down to 4 nT by the end of
the period with variable Bz. Solar wind speeds decreased from ~515 km/s
to ~430 km/s. Phi was negative.

.Forecast...
A gradual return to ambient conditions is likely on 19-21 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the aforementioned CME
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels
through on 19 Dec as CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on 20-21 Dec.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered Region 3927 (S08E69,
Dai/beta) produced the largest event of the period, a C8.2 at 18/0734
UTC. Other regions of note are Region 3922 (S19W40, Dai/beta) which has
increased in area and Region 3924 (S18W69, Eko/beta-gamma). The
remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs
were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events over
19-21 Dec as Region 3927 rotates fully onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 21 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels over 19-21 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment indicated continued but waning CME influence.
Total field gradually decreased from 12 nT down to 6 nT by the end of
the period with variable Bz. Solar wind speeds averaged near 515 km/s.
Phi was negative.

.Forecast...
A gradual return to ambient conditions is likely on 19-21 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the aforementioned CME
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active
levels through early on 19 Dec as CME effects wane. A return to mostly
quiet conditions is expected on 20-21 Dec.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity reached moderate levels due to a pair of impulsive
M-class (R1-Minor) flares from Region 3922 (S18E36, Cao/beta). The first
was an M2.2 flare observed at 12/1743 UTC and the second was an M1.6
flare observed at 12/2107 UTC. Region 3917 (S08W42,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), the largest region on the disk, produced numerous
C-class events this period. This region showed some penumbral growth.
Region 3920 (N22W02, Eki/beta-delta) was quiet and stable this period.
New Region 3924 (S20E12, Cro/beta) was numbered. All other regions have
been quiet
and stable.

A halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 11/2124 UTC.
The ejecta was determined to have originated from behind the limb, so no
Earth-directed component is expected.

Additionally, a pair of small filaments lifted off in the NW and SW at
about 12/0930 UTC. A narrow CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the
SW beginning at 12/1000 UTC. Analysis and model output of this CME
suggested there was no Earth directed component.

Beginning at 12/1746 UTC, ejecta could be seen lifting off associated
with the M2.2 flare. Analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes
available.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 13-15 Dec based
primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922 (S18E48,
Cso/beta).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to high levels with a
maximum flux of 1,180 pfu observed at 12/1450 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
13 Dec and decrease back to normal to moderate levels on 14-15 Dec. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels over 13-15 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was mostly
steady at around 3-6 nT with a variable Bz component between +/-5 nT.
Solar wind speeds varied between about 340-400 km/s. The phi angle
remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 13-14
Dec. On 15 Dec, an increase in solar wind parameters is likely due to
influence from an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an isolated
unsettled period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at mostly quiet levels on
13-14 Dec, increasing to isolated unsettled periods on 15 Dec due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3408
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 12 1504 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 12 1445 UTC
Station: GOES16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity reached high levels due to an M6.7 (R2-Moderate)
flare observed at 11/1549 UTC from old Region 3912 (S06, L=083). Region
3920 (N22E03, Eki/beta-delta) displayed overall area growth and
developed a delta magnetic configuration. Region 3917 (S08W35,
Dki/beta-gamma) showed moderate growth as well. New Region 3924 (S20E23,
Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive. All other regions have been
relatively quiet.

A halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 11/2124 UTC. The
ejecta was determined to have originated from behind the limb, so no
Earth-directed component is expected.

An additional narrow CME was observed off the SW beginning at 12/1000
UTC (in C2). This event appears to be associated with a filament
eruption in the vicinity of old AR 3916 (S15, L=20). Analysis of this
event is ongoing at the time of this summary.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14 Dec based
primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922 (S18E48,
Cso/beta).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to elevated
moderate levels with a maximum flux of 802 pfu observed at 11/1610 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Dec and decrease back to normal to moderate levels on 14 Dec. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels over 12-14 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was steady at
around 4-6 nT with a variable Bz component between -5 to +4 nT. Solar
wind speeds varied between 350-415 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly
in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 12-14
Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an isolated
unsettled period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at mostly quiet levels on
12-14 Dec.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1379
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 05 1111 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 05 1040 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 456 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to two M-Class flares. The
largest being an M2.3 at 04/1000 UTC from about S10 around the east
limb, which was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (423 km/s). There
have been multiple C-class flares beyond the east limb near S07 but a
region cannot be seen in white light imagery as of this writing. Newly
numbered Region 3917 (S09E61, Cao/beta) produced multiple flares as well
as Region 3905 (S10, L=170, Eso/beta-gamma) which has rotated beyond the
western limb and Region 3906 (S17W90, Eko/beta-gamma).

.Forecast...
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over
05-04 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels over 05-07 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remain slightly enhanced with signs of waning
throughout the period. Total field has slowly declined from 10 nT to
around 6 nT. The Bz component variability is diminishing and has been
oscillating between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds have averaged around 420
km/s. The phi angle has remained in the negative (towards the Sun)
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on 05
Dec. A slight enhancement is likely 06-07 Dec due to the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS associated with CH97 in the southern
hemisphere.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05 Dec. Quiet to unsettled levels,
with a slight chance for an isolated active period, are likely
on 06-07 Dec due to possible influence from the positive polarity CH97
HSS.