:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Sep 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3806 produced multiple R1
(Minor) events and, along with Region 3807, exhibited growth. New
Regions 3809, 3810, and 3811 were numbered and the remaining regions
were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or
greater events, over 01-03 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 01-03 Sep. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 03 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Enhanced solar wind conditions and CH HSS influences prevailed this
period. Solar wind speed ranged 325-415 km/s. Total field reached a peak
of 13 nT and the Bz component reached -11 nT.

.Forecast...
A mildly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 01 Sep due to CH
HSS influences. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected over 02-03
Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be quiet to active on 01 Sep
due to CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail over
02-03 Sep.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4680
Issue Time: 2024 Aug 31 2321 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4679
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 01 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4679
Issue Time: 2024 Aug 31 2055 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4678
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Aug 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3796 (S04W14,
Dki/beta-gamma) produced three R1 (Minor) events this period, the
largest of which was an impulsive M1.6/Sf flare at 24/0014 UTC. Region
3800 (S28E05, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a pair of R1 (Minor) flares, the
largest an M1.7/1n at 24/2324 UTC. The region increased in total spot
count throughout the period. Growth was also noted in Regions 3799
(S10E22, Dki/beta-gamma) and 3801 (N07E39, Cso/beta-gamma), while the
remaining regions were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included a DSF centered near S35E10 beginning at 24/1500
UTC, though no associated CME was discernable in coronagraph imagery
following the event. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight
chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), through 27 Aug due to the flare
potential of multiple complex regions on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 25-27 Aug. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels
throughout the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced. Total field strength
ranged 5-9 nT and the Bz component varied +5/-7 nT. Solar wind speed was
steady between 350-400 km/s. Phi was predominately positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels
over 25-26 Aug. Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely on 27
Aug due to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME from 23 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at quiet levels over 25-26
Aug. Periods of active conditions are likely on 27 Aug due to the
anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME from 23 Aug.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1352
Issue Time: 2024 Aug 25 0019 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 25 0000 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 360 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 30
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 08 0813 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 08 0800 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 73
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 08 0503 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 08 0500 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 348
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 08 0303 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 08 0255 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 161
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 01 0915 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 01 0826 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jun 01 0848 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jun 01 0858 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.4
Location: S18E30
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.