BREAKING: President Trump says 10% tariffs on China will officially begin tomorrow.

This will be on top of already existing tariffs on China.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is meeting with Trump today.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: President Trump says the Reuters report stating that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed to March 1st is wrong.

Tariffs will still begin February 1st.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: President Trump is DELAYING beginning 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from February 1st to March 1st, per Trump Administration officials.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: Just 28% of homes for sale in Q3 2024 were newly built, the lowest since Q4 2021.

This is down from the 31% posted last year and the 34% record in Q1 2022.

However, this is still 11 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels.

By comparison, at the 2006 housing bubble peak, this percentage was ~19% and dropped below 10% during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Is the housing market beginning to normalize?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

SUMMARY OF FED PRESS CONFERENCE (11/7/24):

1. Labor market is not a source of inflation pressure

2. Core inflation remains elevated in recent data

3. Possible that any administration or Congress could have an “effect that matters”

4. Recent bond moves are reflecting growth expectations

5. Election has no impact on Fed policy in near term

6. “Have gained confidence” that inflation is heading to 2%

We are seeing little to no surprise in today’s Fed decision.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

SUMMARY OF FED PRESS CONFERENCE (11/7/24):

1. Labor market is not a source of inflation pressure

2. Core inflation remains elevated in recent data

3. Possible that any administration or Congress could “effect that matters”

4. Recent bond moves are reflecting growth expectations

5. Election has no impact on Fed policy in near term

6. “Have gained confidence” that inflation is heading to 2%

We are seeing little to no surprise in today’s Fed decision.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

Truly insane:

Nvidia, $NVDA, just added $100 BILLION of market cap just on the announcement it will be joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Intel is being removed after 25 years of being in the index.

Incredible. https://t.co/cI5SNJaAz8
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is replacing Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. https://t.co/p4LJ4uL77i
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

This is concerning:

The average interest paid on US small business short-term loans spiked to 10.1%, the most in at least 13 years.

Interest rates have now doubled in just 3 years.

To put this into perspective, prior to the pandemic, interest rates on these loans averaged around 6.0%.

Largely due to higher rates, small business earnings are now at their second-lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis, according to NFIB data.

Small businesses need help.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the election, but his odds have dropped to 57%.

Over the last 3 days, Kamala Harris' odds of winning have jumped from 35% to 43%, according to @Kalshi.

This comes as Kamala Harris has taken the lead in prediction markets for Michigan and Wisconsin.

Prediction markets say it's going to be a tight race.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)