Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.

So official Ukrainian stats on 2024 births are out & births fell by another 5.7% last year to sub 180,000 (176,679 to be exact). Better than numbers from January to June which showed a 9.4% decline in births but still bad. Hard to see postwar bump making up for all lost births.

So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.

https://t.co/EyjI91ZVhA

Ukrainian births apparently fell to a more than 300 year low in 2023. The lowest low of ~187,000 births is due to both the humongous number of women aged 18-40 who have left the country as well as other effects from a war that cratered an already low TFR.

Births may have fallen even further (to below 180,000) in 2024. Considering births were sub 90,000 in the first half of 2024 this is very possible. If the millions of women who fled in 2022 and 2023 never return, Ukraine faces an existential threat even if they come out of the war still holding ~80% of their territory.

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-birth-rate-plummets-to-300-year-low-as-country-s-population-collapses-321317/

The phenomena of developing countries having low & very low fertility rates is really something. It’s also a very new one. Some examples include Costa Rica (TFR ~1.2), Sri Lanka (sub 1.5), Thailand (sub 1.0), Colombia (sub 1.45), Cuba (~1.5), Ecuador (~1.6), & Brazil (~1.5).

While developed countries face many of the same challenges of low fertility rates (rising pension aged population with less young people to pay taxes and work being amongst the most notable) they also have the resources to deal with many of them. The developing world does not.

???Births in Thailand for the first 10 months of 2024 are in and they are down 10.7%! Looks like ~480,000 births for the year. Lowest ever recorded and less than half the 1 million plus births seen from 1963-1983. TFR to almost certainly be 0.98 or below for 2024.

More targeted natalism that provides dramatically greater incentives for third & higher order children will yield greater benefits than most nations current policy of simply handing out money for all new births (which simply provides resources to parents having children anyway).