Various scenarios for the potential of K-CAB in overseas markets are attracting attention, and corporate value could explode from the present. The second half of 2024 could be the time to rosy dream about the future, possibly the best year in terms of stock prices.

Therefore, in the stock price valuation, the target stock price will be raised to KRW 60,000 by first significantly raising the domestic market sales value of K-CAB. If K-CAB's potential in the global market becomes visible in the future, it will be able to further raise the value of overseas markets.
A strategy would be good to evaluate the potential for K-CAB sales/profit growth after 2024 and 2025 to buy and hold the stock for a long time. For reference, with the recent rise in stock prices, overhang volume of 5% has been released, which is estimated to be reduced to 1% now, and there is a possibility that the entire amount will be resolved within a month.

Summary text in ENG. Let's look at the vision of entering the global market

Q3 operational performance increases QoQ, the outlook for 2024 is better.
Separate sales in the third quarter of 2023 are estimated to be KRW 220.9 billion (yoy + 12.5%) and operating profit is KRW 21 billion (yoy - 1.5%). In particular, operating profit is estimated to have grown from KRW 15.3 billion in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, royalty revenue of 3 billion won, HB&B profit increase, smallfox vaccine profit, royalty revenue of 12 billion won will be recognized in 2024, and operating performance is expected to increase significantly due to changes in K-CAB contract terms.

If you evaluate your vision to enter the global market, you will see significant growth in corporate value in 2024
First, there is a huge vision to enter the US/European market. K-CAB received Phase 3 clinical approval (erosive/non-erosive, 2,000 patients) from the U.S. FDA in August 2022. Dosing will begin in October 2022 and will end at the end of 2023. The goal is to apply for the U.S. FDA NDA in the middle of 2024 and launch the U.S. market (KRW 3.7 trillion in the digestive ulcerative market) in the second half of 2025. For reference, the approval of competitive item Tacecap's U.S. FDA item has been delayed. To enter the European market, European partners will be selected by early 2024, and European clinical trials will be conducted in 2024.
Second, royalty revenue in the Chinese market is increasing rapidly. Inflowing royalties from sales of K-CAB (Chinese name: Taixinzan) in Luoxin, China, are estimated to be 3 billion won in the third and fourth quarters and 12 billion won in 2024. Taixinzan has been listed on China's medical insurance since March 2023, and the penetration rate (in the 60% range) is currently increasing in 700 large hospitals in China. In the case of 12 billion won in royalties, the actual sales amount is 130-140 billion won if it is calculated back to 10% of royalties. China's digestive ulcer market is 1.4 trillion won in tablets and 2.6 trillion won in injections. Luoxin also developed an injection (L/O contract in 2021) and plans to release it in 2026. China's competitive drug is Takecab, and sales volume is small.
Third, K-CAB exported technology to 35 countries, including the United States and China. It has been licensed/launched in eight countries (Indonesia, Mexico, etc.), and exports are estimated to be 8 billion won in 2023 and 20 billion won in 2024.

There is also a long-term vision for K-CAB to enter the global market. Buying Continues Appropriate, Raises Target Stock Price to KRW 60,000

The stock has seen a long-term downward revision in the big box range since going public in 2021, hitting a low of around 27,000 won in early July 2023. This is because operating performance stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, and the burden of overhang volume was at work. However, from the second quarter of 2023, sales of prescription drugs/hydrates have recovered to the 39,000 won range, reflecting expectations for improved sales conditions for K-CAB.

At this point, it is necessary to think about HK Inno.N's corporate value growth. In the domestic market, K-CAB prescriptions are expected to reach 160 billion won in 2023 (YoY + 19%, including oral breakdown drugs), and the issue of adjusting K-CAB inventory will also disappear by 2024. It has competitive products, but achieved sales of 200-300 billion won in a few years.
It's a possible scenario. On top of that, Taixinzan is expected to grow into a blockbuster in the Chinese market. In particular, by mid-2024, the U.S. FDA NDA will be submitted, and the growth vision in the global market will be visible. Also, if the U.S. FDA gets a U.S. item license in 2025, K-CAB's growth will accelerate further.

https://www.chosun.com/national/welfare-medical/2023/08/14/PDKBTBCX2NDXBHPERGG2U2GRYU/

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https://isplus.com/article/view/isp202307160083

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