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Oh yeah! ?
@ukrainejournal
Yevgeny Poddubny, one of the most famous russian military propagandists, was liquidated.*
This was announced by the deputy of the State Duma of Russia, Mikhail Deliagin.
Update: He's in hospital, severely wounded with burns, is what is currently reported.
@ukrainejournal
He continues:
UKRAINIAN REASONING WORRIES ME…
The Ukrainians apparently believe that the attack is going to help force Russia to discuss peace.
They believe that Russia will only talk if it’s shown that the war will not go as it thinks it will and that only pressure like this will make them see sense and talk.
It is in fact the old ‘make them feel the pain at home and eventually they’ll get fed up and talk’ argument.
It won’t work. This is Russia. You could take ten times the land and they still won’t talk.
Putin has placed all of his eggs in one basket. Russia is straining to put 50% of its GDP into the war, civil services such as education and health are collapsing under the weight of high inflation and reduced spending. Oil revenues are still high enough that according to Bloombergs latest analysis, only if the price per barrel is below $55 will they run out of money by late 2026. Currently they’re legally allowed $60 but the shadow tanker market are delivering it at $65-70. At that rate you’re talking 2047.
Russia has no reason to talk. This operation is not forcing the issue or going to change it. It will just make them double down.
And worst of all this smacks of desperation on Ukraine’s part - and that’s how Russia will see it I promise you. Russian pressure on the front is intense if grinding and it makes Ukraine look like it’s taking desperate measures, in some vain hope of forcing an issue that’s close to breaking point - they think for Russia but it looks more like it’s their own fears over their own position.
This is all such a dreadful blunder. Russia doesn’t act or think like anyone else. They see only weakness in such moves because they know they are unsustainable.
You have to understand how Russia thinks. You’re poking the bear and it may not have an immediate reaction and be slow and lumbering, but it will judge the situation and it will come back in its own way. That’s what happened with Kharkiv. Russia doesn’t bend to such minor operations as this.
Only fundamental strategic loss is understood. That means defeating them on the ground - either fighting them to a stop they can’t get past or driving them out.
Why isn’t this understood?
The Ukrainians strategic war against the oil and ports is vital because it undermines the only thing that matter - the frontline.
That is what Russia understands. Only defeating Russia and making it loose in the field will ultimately grant you peace talks.
Anything else is doomed to fail.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini ??
Seems our favourite military Analyst is against the attacks and small occupation of Kursk, the same as he criticized the attacks in Belgorod (saying it would extend the frontline and out Kharkiv at greater risk of attack):
WHAT IS GOING ON AND WHY?
American questions - and more than a few others in various levels of military, political and analytical circles are bemused by the Ukrainian attack into Kursk.
The Russians admit Ukraine has taken over 300kmsq and its stunned the Russians.
But the point of the operation seems universally lost on almost everyone - and I spoke to a lot of people yesterday - many calling me asking for a read on the situation.
The Americans had no advanced warning of the operation that much is clear. Publicly they’re downplaying their concern, behind the scenes they are not happy. They don’t like the optics of American equipment inside Russia, adding to the propaganda of America & NATO being the real enemy. They don’t like the fact they weren’t told, they are sticking to policy in where Ukraine can use long range fires.
The real problem for everyone is why do this? What is the point?
It’s a resource sapping campaign when areas in the eastern front are struggling to push back seriously heavy Russian assaults. They need this equipment that’s being wasted in a pointless occupation of land that cannot ever be secured or retained. It’s a complicated distraction for little gain.
I have always been absolutely opposed to these stupid raids. It was these raids that coerced the Russians to be drawn to Kharkiv and that offensive, now they have even more reason to look at the previously uncontested borders. Ukraine cannot afford another front. Yet that’s what they have started and may well end up with, even as the raid falters and they return to base having caused a bit of mayhem.
Not one person has produced a sound strategic reason for the operation and the resources committed to it. It’s a raid. The Russians just need to wait and they’ll leave. But the long term consequences could be far more severe. Another Kharkiv front is the last thing Ukraine needs.
I don’t care how successful it looks, how wonderful it is to see Russians running around like headless chickens. In the end this is a pointless strategic move without merit. Politically and militarily naive, it has little short term, zero medium term value and no long term value of any kind. It could well prove detrimental. It’s also pushing the envelope of what Ukraine’s major donors consider acceptable. Frankly I think it’s an insult to those defending so many crucial positions right now without air support or equipment enough that this is under way.
If I could even find one meaningful argument as to why this is a priority I would say so. But it is not. There isn’t one and nobody worth their salt is saying there is either.
If it’s a distraction attack, it’s insufficient, if it’s any attempt to take land and hold it as a bargaining chip, it’s a waste of time.
It’s senseless. It smacks of desperation. Now they have to undo what they have set in motion - on their own terms or look even more ridiculous.
I have scratched my head, looked at every map and every reason this could make any sense - and there is none that comes to mind. Right now if I was Zelensky I’d want the resignation of whatever idiot allowed this. And if he sanctioned it he needs to read up on basic military history and strategy.
The only military adage that covers it is Tsun Zhu, ‘if the enemy leaves the door open, rush in’. All very well in a war of conquest. But that is not the war Ukraine is fighting.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini ??
Almost 20 models of grenade launchers have been put into operation in the Armed Forces
✅ Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine codified and allowed almost 20 models of grenade launchers to be used in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Countries producing grenade launchers:
??Ukraine
??USA
??Germany
??Turkey
??Canada
??Sweden
☝️The combat capabilities of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been strengthened by underbarrel, manual, automatic and multi-charge semi-automatic grenade launchers of various calibers. Most samples of this weapon have a caliber of 40 mm. However, there are more powerful ones - caliber 84 mm, in particular, the universal reusable Swedish Carl Gustaf grenade launcher.
More details: https://bit.ly/4drK0QD
(Ukrainian)
THE ORBAN CONUNDRUM
There have been a large number of calls recently for Hungary to leave the EU and NATO. Neither organisation has a framework to expel any member, at the time it just didn’t seem conceivable. Yet another warning that the lessons of history are all too readily ignored. It might not have been conceivable then but to have no exit door for potential abusers seems horribly shortsighted now. Perhaps we miss the point. Both organisations would never have added such clauses even if they had been raised and understood. They believed, back then, that democracy and freedom were the only viable ways forward. The idea that a member would want to pursue authoritarianism was incomprehensible and incompatible with their very purpose.
Now we have, thanks to Russian subterfuge of the political systems in two countries, a right wing government in Slovakia and a crypto-fascist authoritarian in Hungary.
Orban has been back in Romania this last few days - not on a government visit but stirring up, as he does every summer, ethnic Hungarian nationalists living in Carpathia and Transylvania against the Romanian government. There’s little they can do about it except bide their time.
Orban recently announced a relaxation of visa rules for Russians and Belorussians to enter Hungary. This would give them a Hungarian ID card. That would enable them to go anywhere inside the EU without hindrance. The EU is unamused and demanding to know the extent of the changes.
Slovakia and Hungary have had two years to get away from Russian oil and are now furious that Ukraine has cut them off, shutting down the Lukoil pipeline. The EU has effectively shrugged its shoulders, saying you had plenty of time and instead you doubled down on oil from Russia, relishing the fact the Ukrainians were having to let it through, knowing it funds the war against them. Slovakia has said it will no longer export diesel to Ukraine. Ukraine knew that was likely and made alternative arrangements.
So what do we do about Hungary? We can’t expel it and it won’t leave off of its own accord. It needs membership more than we need Hungary.
Besides there is a danger in Hungary being expelled or leaving. For one not all Hungarians support Orban. Many are fed up with the corruption and the censorship. EU rules mean Hungary has gone almost as far as it can governmentally without triggering multiple sanctions it can’t afford.
Neither Hungary nor Slovakia now receive classified medium to top level information from NATO or the EU.
Hungary continues to host a major NATO logistics air base.
Slovakia is still producing weapons and artillery for Ukraine because the government admits its value to the economy is too great not to.
Orban if he thought his survival depended on it might consider ‘Hunxit’ as some call it. But let’s consider what happens if he does?
Hungary will suffer economically quickly, investment would nosedive, exports would tumble, and without doubt the conversion to a full dictatorship would be rapid. How long before he invites in Russian and Chinese advisors? How long before we have a Russian-Chinese enclave in the middle of Europe? And there will be nothing we can do about it.
Demanding Hungary leaves the organisations it’s bound up in is an entirely natural reaction- but it’s a short term one. Long term Orban won’t last, Hungarians are close to being able to get rid of him and eventually they will. Controlling what Orban can do as much as it can be, may be like herding cats, but that’s better than it letting them run wild without restraint.
The way to keep Orban from doing his worst is to let him get on with doing what he can. Everyone knows he’s a buffoon, strutting on the world stage. He’s the Emperor’s New Clothes. He might be convinced how good he looks, but we can all see he’s wearing nothing. And it’s not a pretty sight.
Patience and persistence are our strengths. Men like Orban never last for ever, and we know his game. Play it and win. @ukrainejournal
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