*? Short Market Wrap 09.13.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* Investors continue to anticipate potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite recent high inflation figures and mixed economic data.

*? Cryptocurrency:* The cryptocurrency market shows a mildly positive outlook, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently trading flat.

*? Currency Markets:* EUR/USD has risen by 0.1%, while the U.S. dollar pulls back. The dollar index and its futures have dropped by 0.3%. The Japanese yen is gaining strength, nearing its highest levels since January.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Asian markets are displaying a mixed trend on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index leads with a gain of over 1%, while Japan and South Korea's markets show weaker performances.

*? Precious Metals:* Silver is up by 0.65%, and gold has gained 0.5%. In Asian trading, gold reached new record highs, with spot gold hitting $2,570.06 per ounce, and futures approaching $2,600.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Oil prices are climbing, with Brent crude increasing by 0.5% to $72.31 per barrel and WTI crude rising 0.6% to $69.36 per barrel. Price support is driven by disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine.

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*? Short Market Wrap 09.12.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, despite hawkish remarks from Tamura of the Bank of Japan. He suggested that interest rates in Japan might rise to 1% by 2027, aligning with what is considered the current neutral rate.

*? Cryptocurrency:* The stock market pressure has extended into the cryptocurrency space. Bitcoin gave up all of its gains from yesterday, briefly dipping below $56,000. As of now, it has recovered to around $57,400, with only a 0.30% loss.

*? Currency Markets:* The euro is trading slightly higher, up by 0.04% to just above 1.10 against the dollar. After Tamura's comments, USD/JPY saw a brief decline of nearly 600 pips, falling from 142.9 to 142.3, but the pair has since recovered and resumed its upward trend.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Wall Street ended the previous session with solid gains across the major indices. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures are continuing yesterday’s momentum, with the index climbing over 2% yesterday, thanks in part to a 6% surge in Nvidia shares. The S&P 500 added over 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw a smaller increase of 0.2%.

*? Precious Metals:* Optimism in the precious metals market continues, with gold edging up by 0.3%.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* WTI crude oil reversed earlier losses, rising over 2.5% yesterday, while natural gas gained 2%. These movements may be attributed to the looming threat of Hurricane Francine.

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? The Head of Research at Bitcoin platform New York Digital Investment Group, Greg Cipolaro, has urged bitcoin holders to remain patient. In his opinion, September is unlikely to bring any surprises in terms of price growth for the flagship cryptocurrency.
As the main factor influencing the BTC rate, the expert pointed to the upcoming U.S. presidential election on 4 November. According to him, the outcome of this event will be a turning point for the entire crypto market, regardless of who wins. However, Cipolaro refrained from making a prediction about whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would emerge victorious. The analyst is also convinced that factors such as employment data, inflation rates, and even changes to the Federal Reserve's interest rate will not have a lasting impact on bitcoin’s price.

? According to Coinglass, 9 September marked the end of the longest capital outflow phase from U.S. spot BTC-ETFs. The capitalisation of these funds began to decline on 26 August, during which they lost $1.2 billion. However, on Monday, 9 September, bitcoin ETFs attracted $28.6 million in capital, finally breaking the streak of losses.
It’s worth noting that this situation is not new. Since the start of BTC-ETF trading in the U.S. on 12 January 2024, the capitalisation of these derivatives has twice experienced seven consecutive days of decline (excluding weekends and holidays). This occurred from 24 April to 2 May and from 13 to 24 June, coinciding with a drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Inflows into the funds have typically been accompanied by a significant rise in the digital asset’s value.

? According to MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, bitcoin is set to increase in value by 70 times, reaching $3.85 million. He based his forecast on the technological superiority of the flagship cryptocurrency over other assets and its annual return. Since August 2020, when MicroStrategy began acquiring BTC, the cryptocurrency has delivered an average annual return of 44% to investors. By comparison, over the past four years, the S&P 500 index has grown by approximately 12% annually.
Saylor also claims that the recent capital outflow from Ethereum-based spot ETFs will only increase investor demand for bitcoin. He is confident that the future belongs to hodlers (long-term investors), who will outlast traders focused on short-term price fluctuations.
In the long term, the billionaire predicts that digital gold could rise to $13 million, although this is expected to happen by 2045. By 2050, bitcoin’s market capitalisation could account for 13% of global capital. For reference, it currently stands at around 0.1%.

? The prospects for the approval of a Solana ETF have become even more uncertain in recent months, largely due to the general difficulties facing the crypto market. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart highlighted the challenges that a potential launch of these funds is facing. Specifically, he pointed out that a major obstacle is the fact that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has classified Solana as a security in various legal proceedings.
Sui Chung, CEO of Kraken subsidiary CF Benchmarks, recently stated that a Solana-based ETF may never materialise. The reason, he explained, is that there are currently no significant regulated markets for futures tied to this token. Comparing Solana with existing spot ETFs, Chung emphasised that bitcoin and ethereum were listed on CME, the world’s largest derivatives market, several years before the SEC approved their ETFs. Furthermore, futures for these two cryptocurrencies had no contract violations, making SEC approval almost inevitable.

*? Short Market Wrap 09.06.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* U.S. stock indices experienced another downturn yesterday, following a report from ADP that showed private companies in the U.S. added only 99,000 jobs, significantly below the 145,000 forecast and marking the lowest increase since early 2021. In addition, the Challenger report highlighted a sharp rise in layoffs, with 75,000 job cuts reported compared to 25,000 in the previous period. Although the ISM services data slightly exceeded expectations, it did little to lift market sentiment.

*? Cryptocurrency:* Cryptocurrencies faced pressure, with Bitcoin dropping by 3%. Investors continue to pull money from U.S. ETFs, and demand for altcoins remains weak.

*? Currency Markets:* U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are at their lowest levels since late 2023, currently sitting around 3.7% after a 2.5 basis point decline from the previous day. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair is holding strong above 1.11, and the USDIDX dollar index has fallen below 101.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Nvidia shares fell nearly 1% in after-hours trading, though Bank of America described the stock as a consistent buying opportunity recently. On the other hand, Tesla shares surged 4% as the company moved closer to securing approval for autonomous driving in both Europe and China.

*? Precious Metals:* Gold saw a modest uptick, rising 0.15%.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Most energy commodities are trending downward.

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*? Short Market Wrap 09.05.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* The probability of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 basis points during its upcoming September 17-18 meeting has increased to 44%, up from 38% the previous day. This shift suggests that a larger rate cut is becoming more likely, with markets now anticipating a total of 110 basis points of easing this year.

*? Cryptocurrency:* Bitcoin has declined by nearly 1.5% today after recovering from previous losses, currently trading at $57,149. Ethereum has seen a steeper drop, falling by 2.1% to $2,404.

*? Currency Markets:* The Mexican Peso and Norwegian Krone have both weakened by approximately 0.2% against the USD. In contrast, the Thai Baht has appreciated by 0.7% against the USD, driven by better-than-expected CPI data showing a 0.35% year-over-year rise, slightly below forecasts.

*? Stocks & Indices:* The Asia-Pacific markets are experiencing a bearish trend, with China's market down around 1%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 0.2%, and Singapore's SG20cash futures dropping 0.5%.

*? Precious Metals:* Both silver and gold showed minimal movement yesterday, with silver up 0.1% and gold rising 0.05%.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Oil has decreased by 0.6%, while natural gas fell 2% yesterday.

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? In their report, experts from the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex attributed the recent spike in BTC price to speculation driven by dovish statements from the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. In their view, the upcoming decision by the US central bank on interest rates at the September 18 meeting could significantly impact bitcoin’s price. Many market participants believe that the Fed will cut the rate by 25 basis points. Bitfinex suggests that "such a reduction would likely signal the start of an easing cycle, which could lead to a long-term increase in bitcoin’s price as liquidity rises and recession fears diminish." However, if the rate is cut by 50 basis points, it could trigger an immediate price surge, followed by a "correction as recession concerns intensify." Analysts do not rule out the possibility that, due to increased volatility during this period, the BTC/USD pair could lose up to 15-20% of its value.

? It is worth noting that Craig Wright has formally admitted that he is not the creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. This admission came after losing legal cases in the High Court of England and Wales, where Judge James Mellor suggested that Wright could face criminal charges for giving false testimony. Wright’s account now even features a notice stating that the owner is not the creator of the leading cryptocurrency. However, this has not deterred the entrepreneur. He has since claimed that "the truth will prevail" and has actively begun promoting his own cryptocurrency, which he has named Bitcoin SV (BSV). "Everyone else, [...] manipulate, deceive, try to erase the essence of what I have built. But you cannot change the fundamental reality that will surface as the truth," wrote Craig Wright.

? Former Goldman Sachs executive and now CEO and Co-Founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, believes that gaming applications utilizing cryptocurrencies are on the verge of a breakthrough. He sees the transition from Web2 to Web3 as a critical catalyst for significant changes in both the gaming industry and blockchain technology. As a result, we may witness an explosive surge in user interest in such applications in the coming months.
According to Raoul Pal’s forecast, this will trigger the beginning of large-scale trading of crypto assets used in gaming applications. The Solana network, where a substantial number of new coins are being created, is expected to play a leading role in this development.

? Willy Woo, one of the most prominent figures in crypto analysis, has highlighted that long-term bitcoin holders currently control over 14 million BTC, or 71% of the circulating supply. In his view, such significant accumulation by HODLers is a positive sign of market stabilization. Willy Woo noted that the bears are gradually losing their dominance.
The upcoming decision on the Federal Reserve's interest rate will be crucial, and it will depend on the U.S. labor market data, which is set to be released this Friday, 6th September. Despite this, Woo believes that in September, the first cryptocurrency is likely to remain in a sideways trend. Unless extraordinary events occur over the next few weeks, significant changes in bitcoin's price are expected only in early October.
According to Willy Woo, the predictions of some experts that BTC could surpass the $65,000 mark in the short term are unlikely to come true. It will likely take a few more months to reach a new all-time high (ATH), possibly happening by the end of the year.

*? Short Market Wrap 06.14.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, it decided to continue bond purchases at 6 trillion JPY per month (approximately $38 billion), which was an unexpected dovish move since the market anticipated a reduction. However, the BoJ will discuss specific plans for reducing bond purchases at the next policy meeting.

*? Cryptocurrency:* Unlike Wall Street, the cryptocurrency market faced a downturn. Bitcoin fell by about 2.10%, reaching $66,700, and Ethereum experienced a larger decline of around 2.70%, dropping to $3,450 yesterday.

*? Currency Markets:* The Japanese Yen declined following the BoJ decision, making it the weakest G10 currency at the time of reporting. In contrast, the Canadian Dollar and US Dollar were the top performers, while the Yen and New Zealand Dollar lagged.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Wall Street indices had mixed performances yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.23%, the Nasdaq increased by 0.33%, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.17%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell by 1%. Adobe saw a significant after-hours surge of 14.8% following better-than-expected fiscal Q2 results and an upgraded full-year guidance.

*? Precious Metals:* Precious metals showed gains, with gold and palladium each increasing by 0.2%, silver remaining steady, and platinum rising by 0.6%.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Energy commodities saw gains as well, with oil prices increasing by 0.3% and US natural gas prices climbing by 0.4%.

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*? Short Market Wrap 06.13.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* The Federal Reserve now anticipates four rate cuts in 2025, down from the three cuts expected by policymakers in March. This year, only one rate cut is planned. The statement mentioned "modest further progress towards the committee's 2% inflation objective" compared to May's "lack of additional progress." Yesterday, the US core consumer price index cooled to its slowest pace in over 36 months.

*? Cryptocurrency:* Cryptocurrencies are mostly trending lower, with Bitcoin down 1.5% and trading below $68,000 per BTC. Ethereum remains above $3,500.

*? Currency Markets:* The EURUSD exchange rate climbed above 1.08 yesterday and is maintaining those gains, with only a minor pullback. Meanwhile, the dollar index (USDIDX) is up more than 0.1%. AUDUSD is down nearly 0.3% following strong Australian job market data, with unemployment in May meeting expectations at 4% and employment change surpassing predictions with a 39.7k reading. The participation rate also increased to 66.8% from 66.7% in April.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on inflation and higher inflation projections, Wall Street hit new all-time highs. Investors still expect two rate cuts in 2024, with a 70% probability of the first cut in September. The S&P 500 closed yesterday above 5,400. Treasury yields moderated following Chair Powell's press conference. Fed swaps are fully pricing in 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

*? Precious Metals:* Sentiment is weak among precious metals, with silver down nearly 1.9% and gold contracts retreating over 0.5%, although still trading near $2,310 per ounce.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Brent and WTI crude oil prices are slightly down, while NATGAS remains flat.

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? Traders note that "digital gold" has recently been trading within a narrow range of $66,000 to $72,000. One popular market participant considers the lower boundary an ideal entry point, while entry at the upper boundary carries high risk.
Despite recommended caution, over 70% of the crypto community participants in several surveys believe BTC is on the verge of continued growth. For example, a trader nicknamed Captain Faibik is confident that bitcoin is preparing to break out of the "expanding wedge" technical analysis pattern. Breaking above its upper boundary, in his opinion, will open the way for the cryptocurrency to rise above $94,000. Trader Titan of Crypto, in turn, expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 this summer.
Community participants also point to the activity of large investors as a sign of BTC's growth potential. Whales, according to crypto industry representatives, are actively taking long positions in bitcoin. Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the $69,000 level has become particularly attractive for large investors.

? By the end of 2024, the first cryptocurrency will be worth between $125,000 and $135,000, according to BitGo CEO Mike Belshe. He believes that one of the catalysts for bitcoin's growth will be the high level of US national debt. "Our macroeconomic climate continues to confirm the necessity of bitcoin. Without a doubt, the US national debt is out of control. […] This situation supports the idea that bitcoin is the gold of the new generation," Belshe said.
He also noted that the US dollar is losing its position as the world's reserve currency due to US foreign policy. The BitGo CEO believes that the country uses the dollar as a weapon and a tool for manipulation. "Thus, the US national debt crisis is one thing, foreign policy and sanctions control is another. And BRICS is providing alternative payment systems. […] This is the story of why bitcoin exists," he concluded.

? The new Binance CEO Richard Teng, who succeeded Changpeng Zhao, believes that bitcoin will soon exceed $80,000. Teng associates the potential new high with the launch of spot BTC-ETFs traded on stock exchanges. This has strengthened trust in the asset, and retail traders and institutions no longer perceive it as risky. The Binance CEO also suggests that cryptocurrency legalization is possible if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. Declaring himself a "crypto president," Trump stated in May that the US should lead the global crypto industry.

? The self-proclaimed first resident of Bitcoin City, American Corbin Keegan, left El Salvador without seeing his dream city begin to take shape. In November 2021, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced plans to establish a crypto settlement. Upon hearing this news, Keegan left Chicago and headed to the South American country to become Bitcoin City's first resident. However, his patience eventually ran out, and he returned home.
The project's implementation was likely frozen due to a lack of funding. Bukele wanted to raise the necessary funds through the sale of "Volcano Bonds." These securities were planned for release in Q1 this year, but for various reasons, they did not see the light of day.

*? Short Market Wrap 06.11.2024*

*? Markets Overview:* The Asia-Pacific session saw minimal news activity, with markets adopting a cautious stance ahead of the US CPI release and the FOMC rate decision tomorrow.

*? Cryptocurrency:* Major cryptocurrencies are experiencing declines: Bitcoin is down 2.4%, Ethereum has fallen by 3%, and Dogecoin has decreased by 2.1%.

*? Currency Markets:* According to Reuters, major Chinese state-owned banks intervened in the onshore FX market, selling US dollars to bolster the yuan. Among the G10 currencies, the EUR and GBP are leading, while the JPY, CHF, and AUD are the weakest performers.

*? Stocks & Indices:* Wall Street indices closed higher yesterday, recovering from early session losses. The S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.18%, the Nasdaq gained 0.35%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was up 0.25%.

*? Precious Metals:* Reuters reports that Vietnamese authorities are expected to relax gold import regulations by summer, allowing companies to import gold for the first time since 2012. Precious metals are declining: gold is down 0.4%, silver is 1.9% lower, and both platinum and palladium have fallen by approximately 1.5%.

*⚡️ Energy Sector:* Energy commodities are showing mixed performance: oil has decreased by 0.7%, while US natural gas prices have risen by 1.5%.

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