Erling Haaland trained with the #ManCity squad today ahead of Brentford (H) but will be allowed to take compassionate leave if he requires time away after the death of close friend Ivar Eggja
https://x.com/City_Xtra/status/1834266680811233289?t=smgtAq8NRgOBli3zdgASaA&s=19

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option, but subbing out in GW1/2 means he seems less secure.

Mykolenko (4.4, Everton, 5.8% Owned) - Full 90 every week so seemingly more secure than a Keane that will presumably be rotated out for Branthwaite when healthy. Virtually no attacking threat. Villa at Villa Park this week (48 Goals at Home last season), so hold fire until GW5, but favourable fixtures from there until GW15 v Liverpool (Newcastle Away in GW7 not unplayable given only 36 Goals last season)

Mosquera (4.0, Wolves, 1.2% Owned) - Wolves fans convinced he's secure as a starter, albeit a Yellow Card Merchant (4 Yellows in 1,228 Minutes last season, which would be 11 extrapolated to 38 Games + is confirmed by 1 Yellow so far and the Finger Of Doom in GW1). 0.25 xG so far so seems unlikely he's an attacking threat, but kinda hard to tell when he had Arsenal and Chelsea in his 1st 2 matches. Literal hell fixtures until GW9 v Brighton, but good til GW19 (Spurs) and arguably even GW21 from there.

Joachim Andersen (4.4, Fulham, 12.3% Owned) - WE HAVE AN ACTUAL EXCITING PROSPECT. General belief appears to be that Andersen will start for Fulham moving forwards. Andersen have a decent fixture this week in West Ham, but presumably you'd want to see him actually play a full 90 (or at leas 60+) before pulling the trigger. Only AVOID fixture before GW 13 v Spurs (although arguably even that isn't REALLY an AVOID fixture, meaning GW15 v Arsenal) is GW 7 v City. Not much attacking threat (1.75 xG and 2.08 xA last season) and a bit of a Yellow Card Merchant with 7 and 8 in back to back seasons, but DID manage 12 Bonus last season so could make up for it there. While I'm not as high as most on Antonee Robinson (4.6, Fulham, 16.9%), his Dricus Du Plessis method of "Okay, I win (Assist)" now which belies his xA means he's almost definitely better value for just 0.2 Mil more. Still, if you're in a pinch and can wait a week, this is likely the safest option at 4.0-4.4 (lower upside, but more security than Matty Cash, and better Defence than Aina at Forest).

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. If you're absolutely desperate in GW4, Jacob Greaves (4.0, Ipswich, 1.5% Owned) or maybe Wout Faes (4.1, Leicester, 12.2% Owned) is probably your best bet, but honestly you're likely best just riding whatever you have. Honestly not really convinced by the security of any of the Southampton Defenders, and their fixtures aren't good enough to warrant rushing any of them in anyway (even Sugawara (4.5, Southampton, 0.2% Owned) who COULD be on Set Pieces and has actual attacking threat you'd surely wait til after United this week to target to get a better feel for his spot).
2. Ola Aina (4.4, Nottingham Forest, 1.2% Owned) looks the best option from GW5 onwards, but worth monitoring his Minutes this week against Liverpool just in case. Full-Back, but not exactly an attacking one.
3. Looking to GW5 on, Mykolenko (4.4, Everton, 5.8% Owned) becomes a viable option once Branthwaite is back, although no timeline on that as yet.
4. The lone player who MAY be worth getting excited about soon is Matty Cash (4.4, Aston Villa, 1.8% Owned), who is apparently set to return for GW5. His attacking potential isn't negligible (4.41 xG last season), and he has great fixtures until GW10, but he HAS now had Hamstring Injuries in back to back seasons (2024-25, 2023-24) AND Calf Injuries in back to back seasons (2023-24, 2022-23), and is a rotation risk with Villa in the Champion's League. 4.0-4.4 price range is REALLY bleak though.
5. Mosquera (4.0, Wolves, 1.2% Owned) is likely worth targeting from GW9 onwards, but no sooner (literal fixture hell).
6. UPDATE: WE HAVE AN ACTUAL GOOD OPTION (hopefully). Joachim Andersen (4.4, Fulham, 12.3% Owned) is expected to start going forwards for Fulham, with good fixtures until GW13 (and arguably even GW15). Not much attacking threat, lower value than Antonee Robinson despite being 0.2 Mil cheaper, but a more secure (albeit lower upside) option than the returning Matty Cash once the two are starting.

Honestly with all the great attacking options at 4.5 Mil I personally wouldn't

4.4 Mil or Less Defenders

What is this post?

An assessment of every 4.0-4.4 Defender who has played any Minutes in the Premier League so far this season.

Why are you doing this?

2 Reasons:

1. I own Taylor Harwood-Bellis (4.0, Southampton, 11% Owned) and know I need to move off him since he got tactical subbed at the 55 Minute mark against Brentford in GW3
2. A few sorry downvoters needlessly left negative comments on a rather innocuous post, so now I'm actively ruining their day by flooding r/FantasyPL with more of my content, for the benefit of those who like the extra info they'd otherwise have to go out of their way to find. Bullying might work on other people, but it only gives me MORE FIRE, so if you want me to stop your only option is to shhhhh.

THE 4.0-4.4 DEFENDERS:

Ola Aina (4.4, Nottingham Forest, 2.1% Owned) - RB for Forest, full 90 in both GW2/3 after initially only playing 53 Minutes in GW1. Not much of an attacking threat (0.03 xG and 0.22 xA so far, 0.34 xG and 1.01 xA last season), plays Liverpool this week so best to monitor Minutes before moving onto him. Playable every fixture from GW5-GW10 (arguably even GW11, Newcastle only scored 36 Goals Away last season v 49 at Home) EXCEPT Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in GW7 (44 Goals at Home last season).

Wout Faes (4.1, Leicester, 12.2% Owned) - CB for Leicester, full 90 every week so far so seems like him wanting out in Transfer Deadline week isn't an issue. 2 Goals last season and 0.33 xG so far with 0.01 xA, so just a regular starting CB. Everton in GW5 (playable) and Arsenal in GW6 (not playable), so whether you move onto him depends on how you see Palace's offense. xG of 3.1 and 1 Goal so far suggests they've been unlucky, plus Mateta came straight from the Olympic Final into the new Premier League season and Kamada is still being blooded into the squad, so whether Palace score (and how much) is honestly up to interpretation.

Michael Keane (4.0; Everton, 4.7% Owned) - CB for Everton. General consensus seems to be that he'll be rotated out for Branthwaite when healthy (and that he's pish as an irl defender at this stage). Villa at Villa Park next anyway (48 Goals at Home last season v 28 Goals Away), so even if you did want him for whatever reason, may as well wait til next week to see where Branthwaite's injury is at

Bednarek (4.0, Southampton, 3.1% Owned)/Jack Stephens (4.0, DEF, Southampton, 0.9% Owned) - Neither is an offensive threat, Bednarek played the full 90 in GW2/3 but only 80 Minutes in GW1, Stephens has played all 270 Minutes so far. Quick look at 2023-24 shows that while Bednarek was rotated a bit, Stephens was rotated A LOT, so in theory Bednarek would be the safer option. Higher BPS in every game so far too. Neither exactly screams security though, so level of FPL utility over Harwood-Bellis is questionable. Neither has much attacking potential.

Matty Cash (4.4, Aston Villa, 1.8% Owned) - Not available this week, but apparently back September 21. Actually underperformed his 4.41 xG and 2.47 xA last season with 2 Goals and 2 Assists. Injury prone (Calf Injury + Hamstring Injury last season, Hamstring Injury AGAIN this season, Calf Injury in 2022-23), but wasn't rotated much last season when he wasn't injured. However, Villa have Champion's League this season, and you have to imagine they'll take League Stage more seriously than the bigger clubs given it's been so long since they've been there. Misses Everton, but playable fixtures until GW10 (Tottenham), and arguable even playable then (Tottenham at Home had 38 Goals last season, not exactly an offensive behemoth).

Jacob Greaves (4.0, Ipswich, 1.5% Owned) - Full 90 every game so far, playable fixtures until arguably GW18 (Tottenham at Home's 38 Goals last season isn't terrifying, nor is Newcastle's 36 Goals Away). Personally prefer the upside of an attacking Leif Davis who is on Set Pieces and had 21 Assists in the Championship last season for 0.5 Mil, but no obvious indication Greaves isn't fine as a starter at 4.0 Mil. Tuanzebe (4.0, Ipswich, 1.6% Owned) also an

Sooo he’s nailed for prem? Source: Fabrizio
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Key stats GW1-3

Third GW is over, its boredom of IB. Lets look at some data for FPL. These are all from my custom tables at https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ . Definitely sign up (just a long time fan, no affiliation).

Removing penalties from the data as much as possible to reduce the noise they cause. Also adding some Tableau public visualisations with minimum 180 mins played

Top 5 for :

• xG non pen + xA open play:  Haaland, Salah, Diaz, Jackson, Semenyo
• Big Chances: Haaland, Salah, Diaz, Jackson, Watkins
• Big Chances created:  Salah, Mbuemo, Palmer, De Brynee, TAA, McNeil (eve)
• Non pen xG teams: LIV, MCI, BOU, BHA, MUN
• Non pen xG conceded: WHU, EVE, IPS, SOU, BRE

Bit early still but starting to form a picture

Some shoot from the hip for me:

• Haaland and Salah teams now very popular for wildcard. Makes it very hard to get Son/Palmer + Watkins + TAA though. Maybe those 10m mids are not need though on the above stats
• Diaz looks great but will he keep those mins with Champions league
• Watkins for his amazing run of fixtures, I want to believe
• TAA is in a league of his own for chances created. I'm happy with the 3 CS but unlucky not to get more attacking returns.
• Mbuemo creating well, looks a good shout with Semenyo even with not so great fixtures
• LIV and MCI doing well, surprising to see Arsenal not there but likely the red card effect and maybe our defence is a better bet than our attack again this season, Bournmouth and Brighton also surprises. Again Semenyo and maybe Mitoma or Pedro.
• A good set of teams to target there now from a whipping boys perspective. IPS improved to third worst, westham, everton, south hampton quite bad
• NFO doing well in attack and defence

https://preview.redd.it/x1ut2vwo8ymd1.png?width=2132&format=png&auto=webp&s=97e4c6d1be710490fec4fd2958037b566f054aa2

https://preview.redd.it/ey2fmvwo8ymd1.png?width=1901&format=png&auto=webp&s=1acc6d4a3d298cb4d5396f8eabed04709d6781a9

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Newcastle United XI vs Nottingham Forest [ Carabao Cup ]
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[Romano] Aaron Ramsdale to Southampton, here we go! Deal in place after official bid revealed earlier today. Fee will be £24/25m add-ons included, agreed with Arsenal. Arsenal are now prepared to go for Joan García from Espanyol in the next 24h!
https://x.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1828868470387147113?t=eUmTp4Ia6Bf9Q-k0Fyy26Q&s=19

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@r_FantasyPL

Mateta hasn't looked back since Oliver Glasner's first match in charge at CPFC! Only Erling Haaland has a better goalscoring record in all competitions since then!
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