Paradigm Session Recap - September 18, 2024

Spot is up, with BTC at $60,900 and ETH at $2,300 as of this writing. The Fed cut rates by 50 bps, with one dissenting vote in favor of 25 bps. The economic projections released show that most officials foresee 25 bps in the remaining 2024 meetings. Chair Powell stressed that the Fed is not behind the curve; today's decision was preemptive to avoid such a scenario. Attention now shifts to the BoE tomorrow and the BOJ on Friday, both expected to hold.

1dte/2dte vols dropped sharply and longer tenors are down slightly post-FOMC. Flows were mixed, with 27 Sep put spreads and 29 Nov OTM call spreads bought.

Paradigm Session Recap - September 16, 2024

Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $58,100 and ETH at $2,300 as of this writing. This is an eventful week with retail sales data tomorrow, the FOMC on Wednesday — the Summary of Economic Projections (Dot Plot) will offer crucial insights into the policy path ahead — followed by the BoE on Thursday and the BOJ on Friday. Fed Funds Futures now lean toward a 50 bps cut, from 50/50 odds on Friday.

Aside from some movement in the fronts, term structures remained largely unchanged. Flows were muted as the market is quite apathetic. The BTC 20 Sep 55k put was bought at 66v.

Paradigm APAC/EU/Americas Session Recap - September 12, 2024

Spot is up, with BTC at $58,100 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. Large XRP volumes traded today following the announcement of the Grayscale XRP Trust. After today’s PPI data, the market still ponders whether next week’s FOMC will deliver a 25 or 50 bps cut, and most importantly what the rest of the upcoming rate cycle will look like.

Fronts continue to trend lower, with 7-day realizeds now above implieds for both BTC and ETH. Flows were muted and mixed in direction, featuring put buying and selling besides some call calendar trades. The SOL 25 Oct 80 Put was sold at 96v.

Paradigm APAC/EU/Americas Session Recap - September 11, 2024

Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $57,400 and ETH at $2,300 as of this writing. Equities closed near highs, erasing earlier losses after a higher-than-expected core inflation reading. Fed Funds Futures now price in 85% odds of a 25 bps cut next week. Tomorrow's events are first the ECB interest rate decision at 8:15 am ET, then PPI followed by weekly jobless claims.

Friday's ATMs are down 10v, with the rest of the curve down a couple vols. Flows were mixed overall, with put spreads both bought and sold. ETH upside was lifted through the 27 Dec 2400/3000 call spread. Additionally, there was a relevant SOL 27 Sep 140 call print.

Paradigm APAC/EU/Americas Session Recap - September 10, 2024

Spot is up slightly, with BTC at $57,700 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. Markets are focused on tonight's U.S. Presidential Debate at 9pm ET and tomorrow's inflation figures at 8:30am ET. The CPI consensus is +0.2% MoM for both headline (+2.6% YoY) and core (+3.2% YoY). After eight consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows yesterday.

Term structures steepened as mids drop - BTC 27 Sep is down 2v and ETH 27 Sep is down 4v - while backs remain largely unchanged. Flows were mixed, with both put buying and selling in Nov/Dec. 29 Nov 40k was lifted at 67v and 29 Nov 35k was lifted at 73v.

Paradigm APAC/EU/Americas Session Recap - September 5, 2024

Another red day, with BTC at $56,100 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. Markets await tomorrow’s jobs report at 8:30 am ET, the last relevant data point before the September FOMC. Market pricing is currently split 60/40 between 25 and 50 bps cut, making tomorrow’s numbers pivotal.

Fronts were bid, while the rest of the curve remained unchanged. Flows were mixed today. The SOL 27 Sep 110 Put was sold at 89v.

https://fxtwitter.com/fiddybps1/status/1831541094351564898

FxTwitter / FixupX

Neon Rebel (@fiddybps1)

Massive trading day for @tradeparadigm ***🚀******🚀*** We were 50% of Deribit volume in the last 24 hours ***🔥******🔥******🔥******🔥*** Activity like this makes me think we are at the start of a new mini price cycle

Paradigm APAC/EU/Americas Session Recap - September 4, 2024

Spot remains lackluster, with BTC at $58,100 and ETH at $2,450 as of this writing. From equities to crypto, market participants don't want to get caught on the wrong side of Friday's payrolls. Bitcoin ETFs also saw a significant streak of outflows.

1dte ATM was sold today, while 13-Sep/20-Sep are up a couple vols and mids/backs largely unchanged. The market continues to seek downside protection, with the largest print being a BTC 29 Nov 40k Put. ETH saw 27 Dec upside lifted again.