Legiao – Samambaia
Pick: 2 -1 ah
stake 4/10
odds: 1.632 pinnacle

ok to take away win at 1.4+ also, probably best to do so in a combo.

Very few players from the home team ever played at Serie D level (and were reserves there), most have only played in youth championships and low level state leagues. For Samambaia it’s a very story – they have quite a few players who have played at high level state leagues, some that played in Copinha, a few that played in Europe and Asia and also Bahia, Iantm and Mendonca and Coquinho who were important players in Serie D last year for their respective teams. Game played in Gama, so neutral venue for both. Actually, I do expect Samambaia to have equal amont, or even more fans than Legiao.

pick coming pinnacle

Antequera – Fuenlabrada
Pick: 1 -0.25 ah
stake 4/10
odds: 1.653 pinnacle

Visitors are a somewhat tough team to beat, quite defensive minded overall so I prefer the -0.25 line. However, Fuenlabrada are in penultimate position and here they have a difficult journey away since they have to travel 470km. A team with a rather small budget, they only signed one player this month. For the hosts other than Recio no there are no important departures. They made 3 signings who have already played, and just signed Longo who has experience even in La Liga. Also, Antequera have made good strides when it comes to attracting a bigger attendance. In the reverse fixture they drew 0-0, but were the better team, creating some great chances. My fair odds are around 1.50 for this line.

pick coming soon for tomorrow in Pinnacle, but first a recap of January:

despite some very disappointing games where we went from lost to won at last minute, deserved a better result given the performance, etc. January still ends pretty good:

PAID: 1 pick, stake 4 units, profit +2.76 units
FREE: 25 picks, stake 101 units, profit + 7.35 units, ROI: 7.27%
Full stats: here since return in 2023 (but only updated once per month). As of 31st Jan 2025:

1. If you had made all free bets (387) with the same stake ROI would have been 8.04%
2. Free bets in asia with flat stake would have generated -0.34% ROI (177 bets)
3. In paid we started strong - 53 bets in total (13 of them in Asia) and ROI of 24%. DM me for more info.

info/collaboration - @coldgoldbetbg2

Aguilas- Don Benito
Pick: 1
odds: 1.684 pinnacle
stake 4/10

Aguilas face Don Benito in a game where they can once again expect starters Joel Rodriguez and Nwenyi who return from suspension. On the other hand, Don Benito will play without starter Attipoe due to suspension and are without Hermida (long term injury, usually reserve anyway). Hosts also signed two players – Lucas Martinez and Pau Vidal two days ago. Don Benito have a pretty long journey (over 500km) to make so should have close to no fan support. Also, Borja Domingo (starter) left the team two days ago. Two good players (Anieboh and Pablo Rodriguez) left earlier in January also. My fair odds are around 1.50 here.

pick in pinnacle coming

Edited to fix my mistake - National Bank had a difficult game, not Wady.

National Bank Women - Wady Degla Women
Pick: 2
odds: 1.70 bet365
stake 4/10

Two teams from Cairo so not much of a home advantage given the anticipated low attendance for this game anyway. Both doing quite well in the league, but Wady won the last encounter here by 4-0 in March 2024. Wady also this season have a the superior goal difference compared to Wady. National Bank also had a difficult game just 3 days ago against Zamalek where they had to defend the whole time, so should be quite tired now. My fair odds are around 1.50 for away win.

https://www.kooora.com/?region=-12&team=48519&team2=35823
https://www.kooora.com/?c=27658&stage=1

free pick coming bet365

Odisha Women – NITA Women
Pick: 1 dnb
stake 4/10
odds: 2.10 bet365

Despite an embarrassing 2-0 loss in last round against an opposition (Sethu) that had 10 players for 70 minutes, I rate Odisha as a candidate for 2nd/3rd place. They aren’t as strong as last season when they won the league, but still have players in the Indian youth selections (Arifa Sayed and Souza and Sillary) and senior national teams (Manbolamo from Cameroon, Xaxa and Hooda from India). NITA did draw against Sethu at home, but lost to East Bengal 1-4 at home. They are newcomers to this division and given the lack of stars in their team I don’t think they should be such favourites. Both teams from the same city.