The Dow Jones Industrial Average just 660 points in under one hour after the stock market opened.

Investors are reacting to last night's debate and August CPI inflation data this morning.

A 50 basis point rate cut has effectively been priced-out of this month's Fed meeting.

Suddenly, inflation is a problem again and election uncertainty is rising.

We expect more volatility ahead.

QCP Asia Colour – 9 Sep 24

- Crypto has stabilized after last week's movement, but implied vols remain elevated. It seems the market is still anticipating potential volatility heading into this week's events, specifically the Trump v Harris debate (10 Sep, 9pm ET) and CPI (11 Sep, 830am ET).

- Given the velocity of last week's dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk. Risk Reversals until October are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH.

- Even with all the near term noise and volatile price action, we remain structurally bullish. And it certainly looks like the market is also taking advantage of this leg lower to pile on more longer term bullish trades. This session we saw big buyers of 28MAR25 Calls (85k, 100k, 120k strikes).

Trade Idea
The bounce from 52.5k is definitely encouraging. So have we seen the bottom? Although we can't be certain, some institutions seem to think so as they take this opportunity to add to their bullish bets in Dec and Mar. With a ZERO cost ERKO Seagull, you will also be able to express your bullish view efficiently.

BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 42k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 239% pa or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 55,200)

Fear & Greed Index - Sep 10, 2024:

Today: 33 (Fear)
Yesterday: 26 (Fear)

Avg. 1W: 27 ***?***
Avg. 2W: 28 ***?***
Avg. 1M: 32 ***?***
Avg. 2M: 43 ***?***
Avg. 3M: 44 ***?***
Avg. 6M: 58 ***?***
Avg. 1Y: 62 ***?***

? #Bitcoin
Price: $57,023
24h Low: $54,599
24h High: $57,897
MC Change: $44.4B (4.1%)
Dominance: 53.6%``24h: 3.9%
7d: \-3.7%
14d: \-9.7%
30d: \-6.4%
60d: \-0.5%
200d: 10.8%
1y: 120.2%

? There’s increase in spammers and scammers sharing links in comments … just ignore and not click on any links shared; don’t be a victim of phishing scams on the rise.

QCP Asia Colour – 2 Sep 24

- BTC ended August down 8.6%. We started the month with the 'BOJ crash' and BTC was never able to recover above 65k. ETH performance in August is significantly poorer, down 22.2% in August on the back of alleged selling by Jump Trading.

- What should we expect in September? Historically, September seasonality is bearish with 6 of the last 7 Septembers in the red and with an average loss of 4.5% (which would take us to ~55k if we see the same this month).

- That doesn't seem too drastic especially after a turbulent August. We expect BTC to find strong support around 54k which is the level it bounced from in July before touching 70k.

- This week, we have Unemployment Claims on Thursday (5 Sep) and NFP on Friday (6 Sep). However, we are not expecting any fireworks especially with macro data having a decreasing impact on crypto prices over the past few weeks.

- We expect the vol curve to steepen further as frontend vols drift lower in a sideways market. At the same time, more long topside strikes are being rolled further out till March for both BTC and ETH. In fact another 200x BTC-28MAR25-120k-C was bought today, increasing its OI to 2.1k. In spite of the lull, there is still strong evidence of structural bullishness in the medium-term.

Trade Idea:
With interest rates heading downwards on impending rate cuts and basis yield on the lower end of the range, you can still generate a strong and stable yield with a CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Take advantage of lower spot to earn up to 23%pa.

BTC CFCC (8-Nov)
Earn 23% pa weekly as long as spot price is above 53k.
Strike: 50k
Protection: 40k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 40k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k.

Vitalik published an article discussing a modern computing trend characterized by dividing tasks into "business logic" and "expensive work," managed through a "glue and coprocessor" architecture. This structure separates general, less intensive tasks handled by the glue, and specific, highly intensive tasks managed by coprocessors, enhancing efficiency. This architecture optimizes performance while maintaining security and openness, benefiting fields like cryptography and making computing more accessible and modular.

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/09/02/gluecp.html

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/sugar-high

Crypto Trader Digest

Sugar High

I rounded out my northern hemispheric summer holiday by flipping the script and travelling to the southern hemisphere to ski for two weeks. I spent the majority of my time in the backcountry ski touring. For those of you who have not had the pleasure of engaging…

According to French TV station TF1, Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, was arrested at a French airport at 20:00 local time (GMT 18:00) on Saturday night. The arrest was carried out by the French Gendarmerie of Air Transport (GTA), who had just arrived from Azerbaijan and was wanted by the OFMIN department of the French National Judicial Police based on a French search warrant issued by a preliminary investigation. The judiciary believes that Telegram's lack of content moderation, non-cooperation with law enforcement, and some of the tools it provides (disposable numbers, cryptocurrencies, etc.) make Pavel Durov an accomplice in drug trafficking, child crimes and fraud.

TON token is down 13.2% in the past 24 hours.

TON: We want to assure everyone that the TON community remains strong and fully operational. As a community committed to freedom of speech and decentralization, we stand firmly by Pavel during this challenging time. Pavel has been a dedicated advocate for these values, and we believe his efforts to promote an open and decentralized internet will continue to inspire millions.

QCP Weekend Brief – 24 Aug 24

- BTC finally got the recovery that we've been waiting for. It seems Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was the catalyst it needed to breakout of the 58k-62k range.

- Rate cuts are confirmed for Sep but there was no indication on how much, so August Payrolls will be critical. A 25bp cut is likely to be bullish, while a 50bp cut could indicate the Fed is taking acute action to prevent the economy from falling flat.

- Last night's rally was mostly spot driven as funding continues to remain flat. However, we should expect an increase in leverage long positions if the 62k support holds and as we approach the end of summer holidays.

- On the options desk, we saw increased topside positioning. Around 600x of Monday 62.5k-63k Calls, which are now in-the-money, were bought just before Powell's speech. Even on the backend, bulls continue to pile on to their long bets in Dec and Mar (80k to 85k strikes).

So where do we go from here?

- BTC is back comfortably in the familiar 61k to 70k range, selling supply is slowly depleting and spot ETF saw net inflows in 10 of the last 12 days. Similar to last night, it does seem crypto is looking for a narrative to breakout of this multi-month bullish flag.

- Despite the significance of next week's Nvidia earnings and even the September rate cut, we believe spot will continue to chop around this range until Q4. We maintain the view that the US elections accompanied with bullish seasonality could be the catalyst for all-time-highs.

Trade Ideas
BTC ACCUMULATOR
If you're like us and think BTC continues to trade around this 61k-70k range before the big breakout heading into the US elections (5 Nov), you can accumulate BTC spot at 9.1% discount (58,200) every week as long as spot is below 70,000.

Maturity: 1NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 58,200 (-9.1%)
Upper Barrier: 70,000 (+9.4%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot Ref: 64,000

PRINCIPAL PROTECTED BTC RANGE ACCRUAL
With Basis still below 10% pa, generate 17% pa yield while BTC continues to trade around this 61k-70k range.

Coupon Rate: 17% pa in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within the range 61k to 70k, 0% otherwise
Maturity: 8NOV24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 30AUG24
Full redemption 100% in USDC at maturity
Spot Ref: 64,000

Bitmain-affiliated cloud mining company BitFuFu released its Q2 2024 financial report, saying that the cost of mining BTC in the second quarter of 2024 was an average of $51,887 per BTC, compared with only $19,344 per BTC in the same period of 2023. The total…