https://youtu.be/GWbP8eC-SIw?si=_xM8TUHMX_LzRxDi

Literally me and my friend at 1am :)))
Feat @akhmad_hurshetov, @fyodoramanov

Thank you for coming MIT!
You made my week :)

If possibility of a certain event happening is far smaller than a probability of a test on the event being false-positive, then the accuracy of such a test will be low!

Example: you are supposedly infected with a disease that only 100 people in the world have. You are being tested with a medical that has a chance of being false-positive 1% and it has a accuracy of 99.99% if you really are infected. Probability of you having the disease is just 0.01249875%

Meaning even very accurate tests can be very unreliable, imagine now Covid tests when there are very few infected, or even the case when new tests are being developed, how hard it actually is to make them reliable enough!

For exact Calc:
0.9999×100/8×10^9/(0.0001/(810^9 - 100)/810^9 + 0.9999×100/8×10^9)

Sounds very interesting!