BTC support and resistance levels

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🚨 Bitcoin Crash Triggers Panic Selling Among Short-Term Investors

Recent data shows a massive volume of on-chain movements from coins less than 1 week old. Over $5.2 billion was moved within an hour, with $850 million in losses realized.

Notably, only $600k of these losses came from long-term holders (LTHs). The rest were from short-term investors, particularly those holding for up to 3 months. This suggests that the price drop is pressuring newcomers to capitulate.

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📊 Economic News This Week: What to Expect for Bitcoin

This week, several key economic indicators could impact Bitcoin's price. Here’s a breakdown:

Monday, August 5, 2024:
- S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 55.0 (Expected: 56.0) – A lower PMI might signal a slowing economy, potentially boosting Bitcoin.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 51.4 (Expected: 51.4) – In line with expectations; stable outlook for Bitcoin.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul): 57.0 (Expected: 56.0) – Higher prices indicate inflation, which could lead investors to Bitcoin.

Wednesday, August 7, 2024:
- Crude Oil Inventories: Forecast: -3.436M – A large decrease might drive oil prices up, increasing inflation concerns and potentially benefiting Bitcoin.
- 10-Year Note Auction: Previous Yield: 4.276% – Higher yields might attract investors away from Bitcoin, while lower yields could have the opposite effect.

Thursday, August 8, 2024:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 245K (Expected: 249K) – Fewer claims suggest a stronger labor market, possibly reducing Bitcoin demand. More claims might boost Bitcoin.
- 30-Year Bond Auction: Previous Yield: 4.405% – Similar to the 10-year auction, higher yields could draw investments away from Bitcoin.

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🩸 The American stock market lost $2.9 trillion today, marking the worst performance since March 2020.

📉 The stock market is falling due to the increasing risk of recession, disappointing earnings from tech giants (Amazon and Intel), and the US labor market.

📄 Friday's top news:

🇺🇸 The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, higher than expected.

💬 Trump: "Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion debt by handing them a little crypto check, giving them some Bitcoin." 😅

🇺🇸 On August 5, Kamala Harris' team will meet with crypto industry leaders.

👀 Lido has launched a staking service for institutions called "Lido Institutional."

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⚡️ Key Takeaways from Powell's Press Conference:

▫️Rate Cut Discussion: The possibility of a rate cut will be considered in September.

▫️Current Stance: There was a real discussion about lowering rates, but the majority opted not to change the rates at this meeting.

▫️Inflation Confidence: Q2 inflation data has bolstered our confidence.

▫️Future Scenarios: Depending on economic conditions, I can envision scenarios ranging from zero to several rate cuts this year.

▫️No Immediate Cuts: We are not considering a 50 basis point rate cut at this time.

▫️Labor Market: Remains strong but not overheated.

▫️Policy Independence: The Fed will not adjust monetary policy based on the plans of future U.S. presidents.

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Major News This Wednesday:

💰 Tether reports a record-breaking profit of $5.2 billion for the first half of 2024, marking the highest treasury bill ownership ever and the largest ever group consolidated equity at almost $12 billion.

☹️ The Terra blockchain was hacked, resulting in a loss of over $4 million.

🚘 The California Department of Motor Vehicles has digitized 42 million vehicle documents on the Avalanche blockchain.

📈 Santiment reports a sharp increase in the number of wallets holding 10,000+ XRP over the last five weeks.

💵 The Ethereum ETF recorded its first inflow after four days of outflows, with a net inflow of $33 million.

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🚀 Bitcoin Watch: Surge in Stablecoin Deposits

Recent data shows a significant increase in stablecoin deposits on spot exchanges with minimal withdrawals in comparison. This growing pool of stablecoins suggests heightened demand and activity in the crypto spot markets.

📈 Market Implications:
Historically, such surges in stablecoin deposits have preceded notable price movements. The current trend could potentially signal upcoming bullish or bearish shifts in Bitcoin's price in the short term.

🔍 Investor Insight:
Traders should keep a close eye on further developments in stablecoin transactions as they could provide early indications of major market movements.

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🔔 Upcoming Economic Events & Bitcoin Outlook - Week of May 19, 2024

A packed week of economic data could sway Bitcoin's price. Key events to watch:

- May 19: Fed Chair Powell's Speech - Potential market mover with insights into future monetary policy.
- May 22-24: Key U.S. Economic Data Releases - Including Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, and more, providing indicators of economic strength and potential impacts on market sentiment towards risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Impact on Bitcoin:
- Strong economic data may boost USD, potentially pressuring Bitcoin.
- Weaker indicators could heighten economic uncertainties, possibly making Bitcoin an attractive alternative.

📉 Strategic Tip: Monitor these events closely as they could offer critical clues on Bitcoin’s near-term movements. Consider how shifts in economic outlook could influence investment in digital assets.

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Should You Quit Your Job to Trade Full-Time? 📉*📈***

The opportunity to be free from traditional work is an alluring prospect that attracts thousands to the financial markets every day. 🌍

Social media, filled with stories of successful traders, creates an illusion of ease and quick success. 🚀 However, it's important to remember that behind the apparent glamour and comfort often lie years of hard work and experience, or deception and complete incompetence. 🛑

Before you succumb to dreams of easy money and quit your job, conduct a thorough analysis of your abilities and assess all potential risks. 🤔 Ask yourself: is my job really preventing me from trading successfully, or is the problem something else?

Consider all the pros and cons before making such a significant decision. 💼➡️💹

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