Daniil Kuzmenko

Description
Daniil Kuzmenko's personal channel. Geopolitical and armed conflicts analysis. Focus on the Russian-Ukrainian war, Middle East and Transcaucasia.

Нововороссия. Правда всегда побеждает.

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2 months, 1 week ago

Yuri Lyamin believes that the batch of thousands of pagers was previously rigged by Israeli intelligence services. He doesn't believe much in the theory that intentional overload caused the batteries to explode, as this would likely have resulted in more fires, but in all the videos, there are practically no signs of fire, only considerable explosions. For example, in one video, you can see how the explosion penetrated what appeared to be two particleboard panels of a vanity on which the pager was placed. Judging by the debris of the pagers, they appear to be devices from the Taiwanese company Gold Apollo, apparently the AR-924 model, as from the products listed on their website, only these have a model number starting with "AR," which can be seen in the images from Lebanon.

Updating the available information at this moment, a massive explosion of pagers distributed among Hezbollah members and their associated structures occurred in Lebanon around 15:30 local time. According to information provided by the Lebanese Minister of Health, Firas Abiad, 8 deaths and over 2800 injuries have been confirmed so far, including children. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, also suffered minor injuries; it is reported that he was not carrying a pager but was hit by the explosion of one that someone nearby had.

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ImpNavigator

В Ливане произошел массовый подрыв пейджеров распространенных среди членов "Хезболлы" и связанных с ней структур произошедшего в районе 15:30 по местному времени. Да данный момент по информации от министра здравоохранения Ливана Фираса Абиада известно о…

2 months, 1 week ago

2,800 injured and eight killed in Israeli attack against Lebanon - Lebanese authorities.

2 months, 1 week ago

In Lebanon, more than fifty Hezbollah fighters were injured under strange circumstances. It is reported that they were affected by massive explosions of pagers that members of the organization use for encrypted internal communication. Some of the fighters are in critical condition. The cause is unclear at the moment, but it is likely that the counterintelligence of the Israel Defense Forces hacked the devices and caused the batteries to overheat, leading to simultaneous explosions.

2 months, 2 weeks ago

Russian combing operations began in Hrodivka and Hryhorivka. With regard to the second locality the information received is confusing, because although Russian army took its first houses it is strange that Ukrainian army does not put opposition given the presence of numerous fortifications around it, therefore, in spite of the declarations of the Russian MOD, the fall of this village to the north of Chasov Yar could not be confirmed yet.

2 months, 2 weeks ago

The Russian Armed Forces have started active counterattack in the Kursk Oblast with the aim of gradually pushing the Ukrainian offensive grouping into a smaller space. The main units taking part in the offensive operations are the 155th Marine Brigade Pacific and the 106th Airborne Division from Tula. The fighting is taking place around the settlements of Komarovka, Vishnevka and Snagost. The pressure is serious, Ukrainian troops are retreating in the Obukhovka-Liubimovka direction. Some settlements have been liberated from Ukrainian occupation. We will have pictures of numerous prisoners of war. My predictions about the situation in Kursk have been fulfilled, the defense consisted of: 1) to stop the advance, 2) to wear down the enemy, 3) to wait for the logistic collapse, 4) to begin to corner the enemy until forcing his retreat. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has made the right decision, at the right time, not to compromise the advances on the Donetsk front to stifle the Ukrainian incursion to Kursk, the fair and necessary resources have been used.

2 months, 2 weeks ago

Interesting footage of the use of an Orion by the Russian Armed Forces, the reconnaissance-attack drone destroys a Ukrainian tank (apparently a T-64BV ver. 2017/22). Details about this combat episode are largely non-existent, we can only note that the location was geolocated as the vicinity of occupied Sudhza and that there have been previous records of the use of UAVs of this type on reconnaissance missions in Kursk oblast. The fact that a large, highly vulnerable attack drone would strike over Ukrainian communications in Kursk potentially indicates serious air defense problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This can also be seen in the increasing dynamics of successful air strikes by the Russian Armed Forces.

There are a number of factors leading the Ukrainian air defense to an increasingly degraded state, which does not allow providing the level of continuous front-line coverage that existed two years ago.
a) The process of destruction of Soviet SAMs has reached a peak. We observe a smaller number of Soviet systems both in images of Russian destructions and in propaganda materials from the Ukrainian side.
b) Western air defense systems cannot replace the Soviet SAM fleet simply because of their small numbers, moreover, they suffered notable documented losses during the summer campaign (in reality, we must assume they are much larger).
c) F-16A deliveries have made it necessary to reinforce air defenses around airfields in western Ukraine, which have been under constant attack during recent massive missile attacks, to ensure fighter safety. It is likely that some air defense systems have been withdrawn from the front line for this purpose.
d) An additional burden for Ukrainian air defense is the change in tactics employed by the Russian Armed Forces in the use of Shahed-136/Gueran-2 drones. They started to use medium altitudes, which facilitates their detection, but at the same time they are out of range of small caliber anti-aircraft artillery and anti-aircraft machine guns. Consequently, intercepting Iranian drones requires the use of anti-aircraft missile systems or fighter aircraft. That is why there have been so frequent appearances of MiG-29 combat images or we have had the recent news about an F-16 destroyed during one of the massive attacks. The above mentioned depletes the resources of anti-aircraft defense and is an extremely expensive process from the point of view of military economics. A Persian kamikaze drone is cheaper than the cost of an hour's flight of a fighter, logically much cheaper than anti-aircraft missiles.

It is premature to speak of a collapse of the Ukrainian air defense system, but we have evidence of a growing number of problems, as well as preconditions for their aggravation.

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Война Z Украина

Кадры удара БПЛА Иноходец (Орион) ракетой ТКБ-1030. Отдельно рекомендую оценить качество теплака на видео.

2 months, 3 weeks ago

The Kazan Summit will undoubtedly be historic. As expected, Turkey has officially applied to join the BRICS. Note that the necessary transit countries are joining to ensure China's access to emerging markets in Asia and an important part of Africa. One example is the control of lithium, China will supply emerging markets with affordable electric vehicles, we only have to compare prices. Putin's visit to Mongolia is another significant development, the ICC has diminished its reputation by itself.

2 months, 3 weeks ago

Russian Armed Forces have begun to advance on the left flank of Ugledar. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has withdrawn the decimated 72nd Mechanised Brigade from the settlement, the military unit that has been responsible for the sector since 2022. Artillery preparations indicate that the third assault will soon begin, this time the Watchtower must fall for good to open the way to the Kurakhovo logistics centre. The Ukrainian command seems to have made the right decision in terms of economy of forces, which will have negative consequences, to try to stabilise the Pokrovsk front at the cost of giving ground in directions such as Ugledar or Kupiansk. In this context, launching offensive operations in Kursk is a mistake.

2 months, 3 weeks ago

I believe that the first F-16 confirmed as destroyed probably crashed due to risky maneuvers of the pilot at the moment of intercepting Gueran-2 drones or was shot down by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems themselves. Let us remind that the local authorities of Lutsk reported on August 28 about the death of pilot Alexei Mes, a native of Lutsk, during the massive missile/drone attack on August 26. Mes is one of the Ukrainian pilots trained in the United States to fly F-16 fighters, the first units having been delivered to Ukraine about a week ago. During the early morning of August 26, the Russian Defense Ministry reported attacks on the Starokonstantinov military airfields in Khmelnitsky Oblast and Kolomia in Ivano-Frankovsk Oblast, some Russian media reported the destruction of F-16 fighters in the attacks. We know that airfields, especially in western Ukraine, were one of the main targets of the attack. On August 29, the US media The Wall Street Journal, quoting an anonymous Defense Department official, reports an F-16 crash in Ukraine due to pilot error, denying that it was shot down, a way of safeguarding the reputation of its fighter in the face of leaked information.

2 months, 4 weeks ago
Daniil Kuzmenko
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