I could go on and on with dozens of charts that look like that

Don't "invest" in a coin that looks like that vs $BTC

The coins I short to hedge are mostly the coins that are down only vs $BTC with very little relevance anymore.

If you need to hedge your longs, you can short a diversified basket of these.

(But you must also know that there will be a time when all of these charts will have a spike during a few weeks. This is what we call ‘alt season’, and it will be the time when $BTC ranges after its final pump, and then all the altcoins go crazy. But even during that time, it is very likely that these weak altcoins will be outperformed by the shiny new toys.)

$TNSR trading under $2bn FDV
$ZEUS trading at $1bn FDV

Whereas :

$JUP : $13.6bn
$W : $9bn
$PYTH : $8bn
$JTO : $4bn

The first two look undervalued. I bought some and will buy more if they go down.

Solana coins have been struggling recently with the congestion problems though

When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins : $STRK : $26bn $ARB : $24bn $APT : $22bn $TIA : $21bn $SUI : $21bn $OP : $21bn Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022…

As much as you want to think that 'FDV is a meme in a bull run', there is now close to $100bn added in locked tokens just for the 2024 new launches.

This becomes sell pressure that adds up months after month.

The 'dispersion' in performance we see on altcoins comes with no surprise when you factor in these billion dollar unlocks.

It is a net negative for the liquid traders that most of us are, since it means that money can flow into crypto without directly pumping the prices of the tokens that are on the market.

If your timeframe is higher than a few weeks, FDV is not a meme.

Like most people in the market, I have been conditioned to buy every dip blindly during the past few weeks. Same for you, probably. The problem is that at some point one dip can get larger than the previous ones. Not saying that this will happen, but you…

Strong tokens with large mindshare by quarter :

Q2 2023 :
$PEPE (topped)

Q3 2023 :
$RLB (topped vs BTC)
$UNIBOT (topped)

Q4 2023 :
$SOL
$INJ (topped)
$TIA (topped)
$BONK (topped vs BTC)
$ORDI (topped vs BTC)

Q1 2024 :
Memecoins - $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI
AI - $FET $AGIX $RNDR
$ONDO

Soooo... was this the multi-month top for memecoins and AI ? 👀

I'd say no but it is rare for a "flavour of the month" narrative to not cool off after strong outperformance + plenty of attention.

Now is a good time to go back to the list of on-chain coins you wanted to fomo in during the last 3 months They are likely to be down from their ATH and either close to dead or consolidating Re-evaluate your thesis If it still makes sense, you can start…

Now is a good time to go back to the list of on-chain coins you wanted to fomo in during the last 3 months They are likely to be down from their ATH and either close to dead or consolidating Re-evaluate your thesis If it still makes sense, you can start…

Now is a good time to go back to the list of on-chain coins you wanted to fomo in during the last 3 months

They are likely to be down from their ATH and either close to dead or consolidating

Re-evaluate your thesis

If it still makes sense, you can start to accumulate

Look at this list :

$RLB
$BITCOIN
$UNIBOT
$OX
FriendTech

They were getting all the attention of the market during the summer + September, and they have all been struggling immensely during the last quarter market pump

The new index of coins that have had massive attention recently are (imo) :

$SOL
$INJ
$TIA
$SEI
$ORDI
$BONK

The first lesson is that you always have to keep in mind that attention is a scarce resource, and your high conviction bets can be completely forgotten by the market a few months later. Narratives come and go.

In the same time, it is very obvious that the coins in the "summer bucket" are very different from the coins in the "ETF pump bucket".

First list = on-chain coins, "bear market" narratives, smaller market caps

Second list = CEX coins, large caps, huge backing

The coins from the second list are way less likely to fade away, but in the back of your mind, you must always remind yourself that the hot coins of a period can very easily lose mindshare