Another pair trade I'm looking at

Short $SUI / Long $APT

This ratio could still ho higher, but probably not much more

Monthly recap of crypto narratives : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/august-recap-narratives-best-performers

A large part of the supply was controlled by insiders

Which is great on the way up as long as they are diamond handing

That's sort of what enabled $BRETT to reach $2bn MC while having a significantly smaller mindshare than the other memecoins that went as high (PEPE, BONK, WIF, FLOKI)

But then when the insiders decide to sell, you're screwed, that's what happened with $NEIRO

60d performance of the largest VC coins : $ZRO : +8.4% $SUI : -0.8% $APT : -3.8% $SEI : -13% $OP : -18% $TIA : -22% $ARB : -34% $ZK : -41% $W : -41% $STRK : -45% $ONDO : -46% $ENA : -53% ETH beta coins and L2s hit bad L1s outperforming ZRO strongest bid

Buying less than one-week-old memecoins puts you at huge risk of seeing them go to almost zero in a few days, but they also have a chance of 2x-5x'ing in the same timeframe

Whereas if you buy a few months old memecoin that is down bad from ATH but consolidating, the chance that it 3x's in a few days is close to zero but the chance that it dies is zero too.

And if you extend your timeframe, the r/r might be way more skewed in your favor with these older coins as long as you notice that there is still "life", a community, a good meme, etc.

60d performance of the largest VC coins :

$ZRO : +8.4%
$SUI : -0.8%
$APT : -3.8%
$SEI : -13%
$OP : -18%
$TIA : -22%
$ARB : -34%
$ZK : -41%
$W : -41%
$STRK : -45%
$ONDO : -46%
$ENA : -53%

ETH beta coins and L2s hit bad
L1s outperforming
ZRO strongest bid

Some top market caps that were reached during last cycle :

$DOT : $50bn
$ICP : $50bn
$VET : $16bn
$THETA : $13bn
$FIL : $11bn
$KLAY : $10bn
$EGLD : $9bn
$HBAR : $7bn
$APE : $7bn

Su Zhu said an important thing in his podcast episode with Taiki :

'Don't think about the bags you fumbled, think about the bags you are fumbling right now'
Crypto gives you endless opportunities, you don't have to catch them all, there are always going to be new ones

If you feel sidelined, just think of it as a strength :

Being sidelined means having cash to allocate : this is comfortable

It means you can buy any liquidation cascade, it means you can scale in progressively, it means you can buy smaller coins with higher risk to have a more Barbell-like portfolio, it means that you won't freak out about having zero dry powder to buy dips, etc.

When you have a lot of cash, you can approach the market with strength, and that's very important.
And if it's driving you crazy to feel that you are missing out on some upside, just allocate SOME of your portfolio to the majors, to the point where you will feel more 'balanced' psychologically when the price moves.

Things don't have to be black or white, you don't have to be fully allocated or fully sidelined, just try to make sure that you are in a strong mental state, so that you can take decisions with your brain and not your emotions.

Fore sure it sucks to miss out on a pump, but being sidelined is really not that big of a deal, as long as it does not lead you to take stupid decisions.

So think of it as a strength, and then decide if you should allocate more or not. If we have bottomed and are now in a 'trend shift', then you will have plenty of opportunities to make money on the long side in the coming months.

Narratives of the week article is out : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-august-18